The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v 1. FC Magdeburg

2026-10-28 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 91.35%1.09fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -4.80%
Kelly -124.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.85%91.28%91.08%93.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0499.01%97.75%98.04%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 2.45%40.81fair odd
EV +49.48%
Edge +0.811%
Kelly +0.825%
Growth +0.408%

assuming max odds 61.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.57%2.38%2.59%3.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
23.0043.4041.0061.004.35%2.30%2.44%1.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 6.20%16.14fair odd
EV +42.50%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +1.93%
Growth +0.821%

assuming max odds 23.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.20%6.34%6.33%11.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.5014.0014.2523.0013.33%7.14%7.02%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayern Munich (Local): 91.35%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit): 2.45%; Draw: 6.20%. For 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 40.81. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 61.00, producing a positive expected value of +49.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.71%EV -5.91%E -5.73%K -196.86%G +0.000%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.10%EV +12.72%E +0.277%K +0.283%G +0.036%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.20%EV +42.50%E +1.85%K +1.93%G +0.821%3.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.89%EV -7.73%E -7.66%K -773.27%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.65%EV -14.23%E -0.407%K -0.419%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +5.33%E +0.313%K +0.333%G +0.018%7.7%2026-10-10 13:59
888sport🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.05%EV -4.99%E -4.80%K -124.80%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.57%EV +49.48%E +0.811%K +0.825%G +0.408%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.38%EV -7.06%E -0.471%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 09:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.05%EV -4.99%E -4.80%K -124.80%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.57%EV +49.48%E +0.811%K +0.825%G +0.408%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.38%EV -7.06%E -0.471%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 09:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.05%EV -4.99%E -4.80%K -124.80%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.57%EV +49.48%E +0.811%K +0.825%G +0.408%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.38%EV -7.06%E -0.471%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 09:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.61%EV -7.73%E -7.66%K -773.27%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.61%EV -14.23%E -0.407%K -0.419%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.78%EV -16.36%E -1.21%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 20:20
LeoVegas🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.10%EV -6.82%E -6.69%K -340.96%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.24%EV +0.471%E +0.011%K +0.012%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -25.65%E -2.14%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-14 06:09
picklebet_au🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.10%EV -6.82%E -6.69%K -340.96%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.24%EV +0.471%E +0.011%K +0.012%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -25.65%E -2.14%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-14 07:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.13%EV -7.73%E -7.66%K -773.27%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.97%EV -26.48%E -0.883%K -0.913%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.90%EV -38.04%E -3.80%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-14 06:08
Unibet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 84.85%EV -7.73%E -7.66%K -773.27%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.73%EV -43.64%E -1.90%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.43%EV -53.53%E -7.14%K -8.24%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-14 06:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.