The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v 1. FC Magdeburg

2026-10-28 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 92.05%1.09fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -4.11%
Kelly -106.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.62%92.05%92.05%92.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.04100.00%98.73%99.01%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 3.09%32.33fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -0.132%
Kelly -0.137%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.09%3.09%3.09%5.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0022.4619.0031.005.88%4.45%5.26%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.86%20.57fair odd
EV +2.07%
Edge +0.099%
Kelly +0.104%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.57%4.86%4.86%11.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.4012.6311.5021.0013.51%7.92%8.70%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayern Munich (Local): 92.05%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit): 3.09%; Draw: 4.86%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.57. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 21.00, producing a positive expected value of +2.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.33%EV -4.27%E -4.11%K -106.81%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.10%EV -4.10%E -0.132%K -0.137%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.57%EV +2.07%E +0.099%K +0.104%G +0.002%4.1%2026-09-21 08:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.76%EV -7.03%E -6.96%K -703.37%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.09%EV -7.20%E -0.240%K -0.248%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -12.51%E -0.695%K -0.736%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 00:59
LeoVegas🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.47%EV -6.11%E -5.99%K -305.66%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.51%EV -19.57%E -0.753%K -0.783%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -36.81%E -2.83%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 87.75%EV -7.95%E -7.95%K +0.000%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.62%EV -41.23%E -2.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.63%EV -44.10%E -3.83%K -4.20%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 86.29%EV -7.95%E -7.95%K +0.000%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.08%EV -47.41%E -2.79%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.63%EV -51.39%E -5.14%K -5.71%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-12 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 83.81%EV -7.03%E -6.96%K -703.37%G +0.000%17.25I 5.80%NM 4.91%EV -46.64%E -2.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.29%EV -63.54%E -8.47%K -9.78%G +0.000%18.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 83.62%EV -7.03%E -6.96%K -703.37%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 4.97%EV -47.41%E -2.79%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.41%EV -64.03%E -8.65%K -10.00%G +0.000%18.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.