The School of Odds
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Bayern Munich v 1. FC Magdeburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 19:45 UTC

Final: Bayern Munich 6–1 1. FC Magdeburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayern Munich (Local)

Prediction 87.59%1.14fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -4.15%
Kelly -50.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.14%87.79%87.69%91.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.051.0999.01%95.33%95.24%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 4.34%23.02fair odd
EV +59.61%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.994%

assuming max odds 36.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.59%4.24%4.47%5.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0022.4821.0036.756.67%4.45%4.76%2.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.07%12.40fair odd
EV +61.34%
Edge +3.07%
Kelly +3.23%
Growth +1.98%

assuming max odds 20.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.71%7.97%7.84%10.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.6012.4712.0020.0011.63%8.02%8.33%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 87.59%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit): 4.34%; Draw: 8.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.40. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +61.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.52%EV -9.78%E -9.50%K -326.09%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.77%EV +8.58%E +0.343%K +0.357%G +0.031%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +61.34%E +3.07%K +3.23%G +1.98%6.1%2026-10-27 05:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -8.03%E -7.65%K -160.62%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%6.7%2026-10-28 19:40
Unibet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -8.03%E -7.65%K -160.62%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%6.7%2026-10-28 19:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -8.03%E -7.65%K -160.62%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%6.7%2026-10-28 19:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -8.03%E -7.65%K -160.62%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%6.7%2026-10-28 19:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.29%EV -8.03%E -7.65%K -160.62%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +21.01%E +1.40%K +1.50%G +0.315%6.7%2026-10-28 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.94%EV -8.91%E -8.56%K -222.67%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -4.45%E -0.202%K -0.212%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.85%EV +8.91%E +0.660%K +0.713%G +0.063%8.1%2026-10-28 19:40
BetMGM🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.74%EV -4.53%E -4.15%K -50.30%G +0.000%19.50I 5.13%NM 4.90%EV -15.31%E -0.785%K -0.828%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.36%EV +4.87%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%4.6%2026-10-28 19:40
Grosvenor🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 88.63%EV -9.78%E -9.50%K -326.09%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV +4.87%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%9.5%2026-10-28 19:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.73%EV -10.66%E -10.45%K -532.92%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.31%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV +4.87%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%10.5%2026-10-28 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.73%EV -10.66%E -10.45%K -532.92%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.31%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV +4.87%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%10.5%2026-10-28 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.83%EV -11.53%E -11.42%K -1153.44%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.90%EV +4.87%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%11.5%2026-10-28 19:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.83%EV -11.53%E -11.42%K -1153.44%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.90%EV +4.87%E +0.375%K +0.406%G +0.020%11.5%2026-10-28 19:40
picklebet_au🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.33%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.70%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%EV -0.108%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.56%EV +0.839%E +0.067%K +0.073%G +0.001%5.8%2026-10-28 19:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.71%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.70%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 19:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.71%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.70%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -8.79%E -0.419%K -0.440%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 19:40
LeoVegas🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.40%EV -7.15%E -6.75%K -119.25%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -17.48%E -0.920%K -0.971%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV -3.19%E -0.266%K -0.290%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-28 19:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 87.64%EV -9.78%E -9.50%K -326.09%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -13.14%E -0.657%K -0.691%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.85%EV -7.23%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-28 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 87.43%EV -9.78%E -9.50%K -326.09%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.74%EV -17.48%E -0.920%K -0.971%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.83%EV -7.23%E -0.628%K -0.688%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-28 19:40
Betway🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.22%EV -4.53%E -4.15%K -50.30%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -0.108%E -0.005%K -0.005%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-28 19:40
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.15%E -6.75%K -119.25%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.23%EV +25.95%E +0.895%K +0.927%G +0.241%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.15%E -6.75%K -119.25%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.23%EV +25.95%E +0.895%K +0.927%G +0.241%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%EV -7.15%E -6.75%K -119.25%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.23%EV +25.95%E +0.895%K +0.927%G +0.241%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 19:40
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.65%EV -8.91%E -8.56%K -222.67%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +34.64%E +1.12%K +1.15%G +0.400%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-28 18:40
betfred_uk🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.90%EV -8.03%E -7.65%K -160.62%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -17.48%E -0.920%K -0.971%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -11.26%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-28 19:40
Pinnacle🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.04%EV -5.40%E -5.00%K -67.54%G +0.000%36.75I 2.72%NM 2.59%EV +59.61%E +1.62%K +1.67%G +0.994%10.15I 9.85%NM 9.37%EV -18.12%E -1.79%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-28 19:40
1xBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.87%EV -5.40%E -5.00%K -67.54%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV +8.58%E +0.343%K +0.357%G +0.031%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -19.33%E -1.93%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-28 19:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 84.63%EV -8.91%E -8.56%K -222.67%G +0.000%15.75I 6.35%NM 5.59%EV -31.60%E -2.01%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.78%EV -27.40%E -3.04%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-28 19:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 84.14%EV -9.78%E -9.50%K -326.09%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.78%EV -34.85%E -2.32%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.08%EV -30.62%E -3.56%K -4.03%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-28 19:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 91.10%55.00I 1.82%NM 1.81%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.09%0.7%2026-10-28 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.94%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%0.9%2026-10-28 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.86%55.00I 1.82%NM 1.80%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%1.0%2026-10-28 19:40