The School of Odds

1. FC Saarbrücken v Hertha Berlin

2026-08-22 13:30 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

1. FC Saarbrücken (Local)

Prediction 25.49%3.92fair odd
EV +1.95%
Edge +0.487%
Kelly +0.649%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%25.49%24.07%28.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.573.524.0031%28%28%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Hertha Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 48.78%2.05fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.18%48.78%49.82%50.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.701.821.832.0059%55%55%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.74%3.89fair odd
EV -4.78%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.96%25.74%26.11%26.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.473.7031%29%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +1.95%E +0.487%K +0.649%G +0.013%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -8.79%E -4.70%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.35%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-11 09:40
Codere (IT)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -1.88%E -0.487%K -0.658%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.82%EV -9.28%E -4.99%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -8.64%E -2.43%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 05:00
LeoVegas3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -5.70%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.76%E -5.28%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.35%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 04:55
NetBet (FR)3.55I 28.17%NM 23.92%EV -9.52%E -2.68%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 49.95%EV -17.08%E -10.05%K -24.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.13%EV -16.36%E -5.03%K -7.27%G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-25 04:59
Winamax (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 24.89%EV -10.80%E -3.08%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.49%EV -14.15%E -8.04%K -18.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -12.50%E -3.68%K -5.21%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-25 04:55
Unibet (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -13.34%E -3.92%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.20%EV -12.20%E -6.78%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -15.07%E -4.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-25 04:55
Winamax (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 25.14%EV -14.62%E -4.36%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 48.96%EV -16.10%E -9.36%K -22.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.91%EV -16.36%E -5.03%K -7.27%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-25 04:55
Tipico (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -18.44%E -5.76%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -2.45%E -1.22%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -4.78%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-16 11:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.