The School of Odds
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Werder Bremen v Carl Zeiss Jena

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00 UTC

Final: Werder Bremen 7–0 Carl Zeiss Jena

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Werder Bremen (Local)

Prediction 72.70%1.38fair odd
EV -6.94%
Edge -5.42%
Kelly -24.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.54%72.77%72.69%76.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.211.2885.47%82.64%82.64%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carl Zeiss Jena (Visit)

Prediction 11.20%8.93fair odd
EV +12.00%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.160%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.92%11.07%11.31%12.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.019.1810.0014.29%11.10%10.90%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.10%6.21fair odd
EV -0.199%
Edge -0.032%
Kelly -0.038%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.54%16.16%16.01%18.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.655.906.2022.22%17.71%16.93%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Werder Bremen (Local): 72.70%; Carl Zeiss Jena (Visit): 11.20%; Draw: 16.10%. For Carl Zeiss Jena (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.93. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:20
LeoVegas🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:20
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -14.94%E -12.77%K -87.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.92%EV +12.00%E +1.20%K +1.33%G +0.160%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -3.42%E -0.570%K -0.684%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 12:24
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.38%EV -11.30%E -9.26%K -51.37%G +0.000%9.35I 10.70%NM 9.70%EV +4.72%E +0.504%K +0.565%G +0.027%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.92%EV -8.25%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 05:14
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -9.12%E -7.30%K -36.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV +0.796%E +0.088%K +0.100%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -19.52%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 06:15
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -9.12%E -7.30%K -36.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV +0.796%E +0.088%K +0.100%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -19.52%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 06:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -9.12%E -7.30%K -36.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV +0.796%E +0.088%K +0.100%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -19.52%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 06:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -9.12%E -7.30%K -36.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV +0.796%E +0.088%K +0.100%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -19.52%E -3.90%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 06:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.12%E -7.30%K -36.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -4.80%E -0.565%K -0.640%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 08:10
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.98%EV -9.12%E -7.30%K -36.48%G +0.000%8.06I 12.41%NM 11.32%EV -9.73%E -1.21%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.81I 17.21%NM 15.70%EV -6.48%E -1.11%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 06:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.90%EV -11.30%E -9.26%K -51.37%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.56%EV -12.64%E -1.62%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.54%EV -0.199%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-08 08:15
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -11.30%E -9.26%K -51.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -16.00%E -2.13%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-08 03:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.64%EV -6.94%E -5.42%K -24.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -21.60%E -3.09%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 13:34
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.64%EV -6.94%E -5.42%K -24.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -21.60%E -3.09%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -11.47%E -2.08%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-09 13:34
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 69.54%EV -12.76%E -10.63%K -63.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 11.92%EV -21.60%E -3.09%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.54%EV -27.56%E -6.13%K -7.88%G +0.000%19.8%2026-05-09 13:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.27I 78.74%NM 74.08%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%6.3%2026-05-10 00:15