Language:English
VfL Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
VfL Wolfsburg (Local)
Prediction 62.61%1.60fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -5.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.61%62.61%62.61%64.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.401.5574.07%70.50%71.43%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)
Prediction 16.82%5.95fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.427%
Kelly +0.511%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 6.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.62%16.82%16.82%18.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.465.636.1021.74%18.30%17.78%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.57%4.86fair odd
EV -7.45%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.21%20.57%20.57%22.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.234.304.5026.67%23.62%23.26%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Wolfsburg (Local): 62.61%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 16.82%; Draw: 20.57%. For Bayer Leverkusen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.95. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.61%.
Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.63%EV -13.59%E -9.85%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV +2.61%E +0.427%K +0.511%G +0.013% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -11.56%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -12.34%E -8.82%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV +0.923%E +0.154%K +0.185%G +0.002% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.51%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -12.34%E -8.82%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV +0.923%E +0.154%K +0.185%G +0.002% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.51%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -12.34%E -8.82%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV +0.923%E +0.154%K +0.185%G +0.002% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.51%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -12.34%E -8.82%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV +0.923%E +0.154%K +0.185%G +0.002% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.51%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 64.47%EV -14.22%E -10.38%K -38.43%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.23%EV -2.44%E -0.421%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.30%EV -10.53%E -2.42%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 64.47%EV -14.22%E -10.38%K -38.43%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.23%EV -2.44%E -0.421%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.30%EV -10.53%E -2.42%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.64%EV -14.85%E -10.92%K -41.24%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.16%EV -2.44%E -0.421%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.21%EV -10.53%E -2.42%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.48%EV -14.85%E -10.92%K -41.24%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.12%EV -2.44%E -0.421%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.40%EV -11.56%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 64.57%EV -15.47%E -11.46%K -44.21%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.16%EV -3.28%E -0.571%K -0.691%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.27%EV -11.56%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -9.21%E -6.35%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -7.49%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -7.45%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.17%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.48I 18.25%NM 17.02%EV -7.82%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.48I 22.32%NM 20.82%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 17:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.33%EV -2.95%E -1.90%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 17.88%EV -12.03%E -2.30%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 21.80%EV -11.77%E -2.74%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-15 17:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.73%E -4.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.34%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.28%EV -19.79%E -5.07%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.34%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.28%EV -19.79%E -5.07%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.34%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.28%EV -19.79%E -5.07%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.22%EV -7.33%E -4.95%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -19.26%E -4.01%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.62%E -3.24%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.39%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.90%EV -22.63%E -4.92%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -13.62%E -3.24%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-15 17:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 59.61%EV -12.34%E -8.82%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.14%EV -22.63%E -4.92%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.25%EV -22.87%E -6.10%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-03-15 17:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.