The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt

Kickoff: 2026-09-07 16:00 UTC

Final: Union Berlin 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Berlin (Local)

Prediction 26.90%3.72fair odd
EV +2.21%
Edge +0.581%
Kelly +0.788%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.39%26.90%27.58%28.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.493.623.8033.33%28.66%27.62%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit)

Prediction 49.43%2.02fair odd
EV -6.09%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -6.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.66%49.43%48.66%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.751.731.9059.52%57.09%57.97%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.68%4.22fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.65%23.68%23.77%24.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.713.754.0929.41%26.97%26.67%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Berlin (Local): 26.90%; Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit): 49.43%; Draw: 23.68%. For Union Berlin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV +2.21%E +0.581%K +0.788%G +0.017%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%EV -16.96%E -10.10%K -24.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.21%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 15:14
LiveScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV +2.21%E +0.581%K +0.788%G +0.017%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%EV -16.96%E -10.10%K -24.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.21%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 15:15
Grosvenor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV +2.21%E +0.581%K +0.788%G +0.017%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%EV -16.96%E -10.10%K -24.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.21%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 15:14
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV +2.21%E +0.581%K +0.788%G +0.017%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%EV -16.96%E -10.10%K -24.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.21%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV +2.21%E +0.581%K +0.788%G +0.017%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%EV -16.96%E -10.10%K -24.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.21%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 15:15
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV +2.21%E +0.581%K +0.788%G +0.017%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%EV -16.96%E -10.10%K -24.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.21%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV +2.21%E +0.581%K +0.788%G +0.017%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%EV -16.96%E -10.10%K -24.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.21%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV +2.21%E +0.581%K +0.788%G +0.017%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.91%EV -16.96%E -10.10%K -24.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.21%E -2.99%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-07 15:15
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -0.483%E -0.131%K -0.179%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -13.50%E -7.72%K -18.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.82%EV -10.03%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-07 15:45
1xBet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 25.64%EV -4.79%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.72%EV -11.53%E -6.44%K -14.59%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.64%EV -9.08%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-07 15:55
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 28.59%EV -12.86%E -3.97%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -6.09%E -3.21%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 22.65%EV -3.16%E -0.772%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 15:55
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.93%E -4.35%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -14.76%E -4.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-07 15:55
888sport🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.93%E -4.35%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -14.76%E -4.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-07 15:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.93%E -4.35%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -14.76%E -4.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-07 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.93%E -4.35%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.80%EV -8.56%E -4.63%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -14.76%E -4.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-07 15:55
betano_uk🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 26.65%EV -16.08%E -5.15%K -7.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 48.90%EV -15.98%E -9.40%K -22.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.45%EV -19.50%E -5.73%K -8.12%G +0.000%20.3%2026-09-07 15:55
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.93%EV -19.31%E -6.44%K -9.66%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.22%EV -11.03%E -6.13%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.84%EV -10.03%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-07 15:44
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 27.80%EV -19.31%E -6.44%K -9.66%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 47.66%EV -13.50%E -7.72%K -18.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.53%EV -19.50%E -5.73%K -8.12%G +0.000%19.9%2026-09-07 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.