The School of Odds
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TSG Hoffenheim v SGS Essen

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 11:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim (Local)

Prediction 62.30%1.61fair odd
EV -5.93%
Edge -3.93%
Kelly -11.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.75%62.47%62.30%70.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.351.301.5179.37%74.23%76.92%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SGS Essen (Visit)

Prediction 17.29%5.79fair odd
EV +38.28%
Edge +4.79%
Kelly +5.47%
Growth +2.09%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.30%17.26%17.29%18.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.606.375.978.0021.74%15.71%16.75%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.42%4.90fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.419%
Kelly +0.523%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.04%20.26%20.42%21.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.564.705.0025.00%21.92%21.28%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim (Local): 62.30%; SGS Essen (Visit): 17.29%; Draw: 20.42%. For SGS Essen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.79. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +38.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -20.26%E -15.83%K -72.36%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV +38.28%E +4.79%K +5.47%G +2.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV +2.09%E +0.419%K +0.523%G +0.011%10.6%2026-03-15 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -20.26%E -15.83%K -72.36%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV +38.28%E +4.79%K +5.47%G +2.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV +2.09%E +0.419%K +0.523%G +0.011%10.6%2026-03-15 11:00
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.74%EV -20.88%E -16.44%K -77.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV +29.64%E +3.95%K +4.56%G +1.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -1.99%E -0.415%K -0.524%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-15 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.74%EV -20.88%E -16.44%K -77.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV +29.64%E +3.95%K +4.56%G +1.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -1.99%E -0.415%K -0.524%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-15 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.74%EV -20.88%E -16.44%K -77.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV +29.64%E +3.95%K +4.56%G +1.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -1.99%E -0.415%K -0.524%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-15 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.74%EV -20.88%E -16.44%K -77.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV +29.64%E +3.95%K +4.56%G +1.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -1.99%E -0.415%K -0.524%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-15 11:00
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.74%EV -20.88%E -16.44%K -77.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV +29.64%E +3.95%K +4.56%G +1.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -1.99%E -0.415%K -0.524%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-15 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.74%EV -20.88%E -16.44%K -77.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV +29.64%E +3.95%K +4.56%G +1.35%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -1.99%E -0.415%K -0.524%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-15 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.17%EV -21.51%E -17.07%K -82.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.79%EV +29.64%E +3.95%K +4.56%G +1.35%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.04%EV +0.052%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-15 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.17%EV -21.51%E -17.07%K -82.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.79%EV +29.64%E +3.95%K +4.56%G +1.35%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.04%EV +0.052%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-15 11:00
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.37%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 15.67%EV +3.19%E +0.535%K +0.642%G +0.021%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.96%EV -13.02%E -3.06%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 10:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.42%EV -12.79%E -9.13%K -31.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV -4.93%E -0.897%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -4.03%E -0.858%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-15 10:59
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -12.79%E -9.13%K -31.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -4.93%E -0.897%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -14.24%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-15 10:59
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -12.79%E -9.13%K -31.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -4.93%E -0.897%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -14.24%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-15 10:59
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 64.05%EV -19.02%E -14.63%K -63.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.14%EV -4.93%E -0.897%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.82%EV -18.33%E -4.58%K -6.11%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-15 10:59
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -10.29%E -7.15%K -23.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -9.25%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -8.12%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-15 11:00
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.74%EV -5.93%E -3.93%K -11.63%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.21%EV -11.50%E -2.25%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.05%EV -5.05%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 10:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.35%EV -12.79%E -9.13%K -31.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.18%EV -13.57%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.47%EV -18.33%E -4.58%K -6.11%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-15 11:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.35%EV -12.79%E -9.13%K -31.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.18%EV -13.57%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.47%EV -18.33%E -4.58%K -6.11%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-15 11:00
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.75%EV -10.29%E -7.15%K -23.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.42%EV -17.90%E -3.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -14.24%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-15 11:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.90%EV -12.79%E -9.13%K -31.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.84%EV -20.49%E -4.45%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.26%EV -8.12%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-15 11:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 62.83%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.98%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.19%9.8%2026-03-15 11:00