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TSG Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
TSG Hoffenheim (Local)
Prediction 25.34%3.95fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.303%
Kelly -0.408%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.16%25.34%25.74%26.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.483.503.9030.77%28.75%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)
Prediction 49.82%2.01fair odd
EV -8.82%
Edge -4.82%
Kelly -10.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.14%49.82%49.50%51.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.781.781.8358.82%56.06%56.18%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.84%4.03fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.54%24.84%24.76%26.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.543.603.8930.77%28.23%27.78%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim (Local): 25.34%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 49.82%; Draw: 24.84%. For TSG Hoffenheim (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.16%EV -1.18%E -0.303%K -0.408%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.03%EV -11.81%E -6.67%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 07:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.82%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -15.55%E -4.57%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -8.78%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -8.82%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -15.55%E -4.57%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.35%EV -9.29%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -8.82%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.07%EV -10.09%E -2.79%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.31%EV -9.32%E -5.12%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 23.54%EV -3.38%E -0.869%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-04 04:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.92%EV -11.31%E -6.36%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 13:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -16.39%E -4.97%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -8.82%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -16.39%E -4.97%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -8.82%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.07%E -3.73%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -16.39%E -4.97%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.88%EV -13.80%E -7.98%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-09-04 04:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.56%EV -17.65%E -5.43%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 48.87%EV -15.30%E -9.00%K -21.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.56%EV -19.28%E -5.93%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 20.4% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.56%EV -17.65%E -5.43%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 48.87%EV -15.30%E -9.00%K -21.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.56%EV -19.28%E -5.93%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 20.4% | 2026-09-04 14:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.