The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 11:04 UTC

Final: 1. FC Köln 3–0 Werder Bremen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln (Local)

Prediction 33.38%3.00fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.05%33.38%33.47%37.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.492.402.8342.02%40.13%41.67%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Werder Bremen (Visit)

Prediction 40.96%2.44fair odd
EV +0.362%
Edge +0.148%
Kelly +0.250%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.65%40.96%40.75%42.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.402.4546.51%42.49%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.65%3.90fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.73%25.65%25.77%27.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.403.403.7533.33%29.38%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Köln (Local): 33.38%; Werder Bremen (Visit): 40.96%; Draw: 25.65%. For Werder Bremen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.362%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.95%EV -18.88%E -7.77%K -13.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.65%EV +0.362%E +0.148%K +0.250%G +0.001%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.95%EV -18.88%E -7.77%K -13.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.65%EV +0.362%E +0.148%K +0.250%G +0.001%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.95%EV -18.88%E -7.77%K -13.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.65%EV +0.362%E +0.148%K +0.250%G +0.001%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 11:00
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -19.89%E -8.29%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -1.69%E -0.702%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -19.89%E -8.29%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -1.69%E -0.702%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -19.89%E -8.29%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -1.69%E -0.702%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 11:00
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -19.89%E -8.29%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -1.69%E -0.702%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 11:00
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -19.89%E -8.29%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -1.69%E -0.702%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -19.89%E -8.29%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -1.69%E -0.702%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 11:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -20.55%E -8.64%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.70%EV -1.69%E -0.702%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.29%EV -14.06%E -4.20%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-02 11:00
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.05%EV -5.53%E -1.95%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -5.78%E -2.51%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.28%EV -8.67%E -2.44%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 10:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -7.83%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-02 11:00
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.07%EV -20.55%E -8.64%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.10%EV -7.83%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.83%EV -23.04%E -7.68%K -11.52%G +0.000%19.8%2026-05-02 10:59
Pinnacle🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -9.88%E -4.49%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 10:59
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -13.21%E -5.08%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -11.93%E -5.55%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -12.77%E -3.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-02 11:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.