L’École des cotes

VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin

2026-08-07 18:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Résultat du match

25 opérateurs (8 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

VfL Bochum (Local)

Prévision 40.35%2.48cote équitable
EV -3.16%
Avantage -1.32%
Kelly -2.26%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.08%40.41%40.44%42.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.052.262.252.4048.78%44.34%44.44%41.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Hertha Berlin (Visiteur)

Prévision 34.53%2.90cote équitable
EV +0.137%
Avantage +0.047%
Kelly +0.072%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.45%34.41%34.43%35.95%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.402.602.602.9041.67%38.40%38.46%34.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.12%3.98cote équitable
EV -3.28%
Avantage -0.852%
Kelly -1.15%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.26%25.18%25.13%26.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.593.603.8530.30%27.83%27.78%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (25 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV +0.137%E +0.047%K +0.072%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -4.54%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 16:50
1xBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -3.97%E -1.67%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.22%EV -5.73%E -2.10%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.54%EV -11.57%E -3.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 12:59
Marathon Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -3.97%E -1.67%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.22%EV -5.73%E -2.10%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.54%EV -11.57%E -3.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 12:59
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 40.60%EV -8.01%E -3.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.03%EV -6.08%E -2.23%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.31%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-13 12:15
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.60%EV -8.01%E -3.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.03%EV -6.08%E -2.23%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.31%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-13 12:14
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.38%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.81%EV -3.28%E -0.852%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 11:40
BetMGM2.38I 42.02%NM 39.88%EV -3.97%E -1.67%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.15%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.54%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 05:55
Codere (IT)2.28I 43.86%NM 40.64%EV -8.01%E -3.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.32%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -7.05%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 10:40
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.56%E -2.66%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-13 12:14
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.50%E -3.21%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.54%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-13 05:34
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.50%E -3.21%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.56%E -2.66%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 21:14
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -10.22%E -3.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.54%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 06:00
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -10.22%E -3.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.54%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 06:00
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -10.22%E -3.93%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -8.31%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-22 07:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -11.95%E -4.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -9.56%E -2.66%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-18 05:55
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.05%EV -15.27%E -7.27%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.81%EV -11.95%E -4.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.14%EV -13.83%E -4.03%K -5.69%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-23 18:34
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -13.67%E -5.47%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.56%E -2.66%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-18 05:56
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -13.67%E -5.47%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -12.07%E -3.45%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-18 06:00
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -13.67%E -5.47%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -12.07%E -3.45%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-18 05:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -13.67%E -5.47%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -12.07%E -3.45%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-18 05:59
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -13.67%E -5.47%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -12.07%E -3.45%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-18 05:59
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 41.12%EV -17.29%E -8.43%K -16.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.72%EV -13.67%E -5.47%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.16%EV -15.84%E -4.73%K -6.74%G +0.000%18.6%2026-07-13 10:40
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 39.29%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.28%EV -15.40%E -6.29%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.42%EV -14.59%E -4.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-18 05:55
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.10%EV -15.27%E -7.27%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.38%EV -15.40%E -6.29%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.52%EV -17.10%E -5.18%K -7.43%G +0.000%18.7%2026-07-22 13:43
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 40.70%EV -17.29%E -8.43%K -16.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.76%EV -17.13%E -7.14%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.54%EV -14.59%E -4.29%K -6.08%G +0.000%19.9%2026-07-13 05:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 48.09%2.04I 49.02%NM 25.70%2.00I 50.00%NM 26.21%90.8%2026-07-26 02:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 48.09%2.04I 49.02%NM 25.70%2.00I 50.00%NM 26.21%90.8%2026-07-26 02:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 44.59%1.69I 59.17%NM 27.70%1.69I 59.17%NM 27.70%113.6%2026-07-24 06:10
Smarkets1.04I 96.15%NM 44.52%1.63I 61.35%NM 28.40%1.71I 58.48%NM 27.08%116.0%2026-07-26 02:34