La escuela de los momios

SV Darmstadt 98 v SC Paderborn

Inicio: 2026-05-17 13:30 UTC

Final: SV Darmstadt 98 0–2 SC Paderborn

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Predicción 28.31%3.53momio equitativo
EV +0.507%
Ventaja +0.143%
Kelly +0.199%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.40%28.19%28.43%29.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.313.303.5533.33%30.25%30.30%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Paderborn (Visitante)

Predicción 48.39%2.07momio equitativo
EV -3.70%
Ventaja -1.86%
Kelly -3.74%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.99

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.20%48.52%48.26%50.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.751.891.911.9957.14%52.87%52.36%50.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.30%4.29momio equitativo
EV -2.15%
Ventaja -0.512%
Kelly -0.672%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.44%23.28%23.30%25.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.944.004.2030.30%25.38%25.00%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV +0.507%E +0.143%K +0.199%G +0.001%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -9.51%E -5.09%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 09:40
Svenska Spel3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV +0.507%E +0.143%K +0.199%G +0.001%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -9.51%E -5.09%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 09:40
Tipico (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -8.06%E -4.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 08:05
Unibet3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 09:40
Grosvenor3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 09:39
TABtouch3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 09:39
Unibet (NL)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 09:39
Unibet (SE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 09:40
Casumo3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 09:40
betPARX3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 09:41
BetRivers3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -11.45%E -6.25%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 09:40
LeoVegas (SE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -0.909%E -0.260%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -11.45%E -6.25%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 09:40
LeoVegas3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -2.32%E -0.674%K -0.949%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.30%EV -11.45%E -6.25%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-13 22:30
Pinnacle3.41I 29.33%NM 28.05%EV -3.46%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.56%EV -4.67%E -2.37%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.39%EV -4.71%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.74%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.72%EV -3.70%E -1.86%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:39
LowVig.ag3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.74%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.72%EV -3.70%E -1.86%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:39
Fanatics3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.74%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 07:35
DraftKings3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.74%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Marathon Bet3.36I 29.76%NM 27.75%EV -4.87%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -7.28%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:40
1xBet3.35I 29.85%NM 27.95%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.52%EV -6.61%E -3.42%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.53%EV -7.28%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 10:39
Bovada3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.84%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:06
Virgin Bet3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.45%EV -14.35%E -8.11%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-14 09:40
LiveScore Bet3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.45%EV -14.35%E -8.11%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-14 09:40
Coolbet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.28%EV -4.19%E -2.11%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -2.15%E -0.512%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.52%EV -6.12%E -3.16%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:15
FanDuel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 10:38
BetMGM3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:05
Everygame3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 10:39
SportsBet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -8.06%E -4.24%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 10:40
PMU (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -6.57%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.38%EV -15.32%E -8.75%K -20.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.90%EV -10.30%E -2.68%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-13 22:29
Suprabets3.29I 30.40%NM 28.35%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.33%EV -6.61%E -3.42%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:35
Winamax (DE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.57%EV -6.12%E -3.16%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -2.15%E -0.512%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 10:39
theScore Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 08:15
Bet Victor3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.16%EV -6.61%E -3.42%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 08:09
Betway3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 07:30
NordicBet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.15%EV -7.09%E -3.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.15%EV -7.09%E -3.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:40
888sport3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 07:40
William Hill3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 07:45
888sport (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 07:40
Mr Green (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 07:40
Betclic (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.16%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.85%EV -7.28%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 10:40
PointsBet (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -9.40%E -2.94%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Betr (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -9.40%E -2.94%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 10:40
PlayUp3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.40%E -2.94%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.26%EV -5.64%E -2.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -10.30%E -2.68%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 08:00
betfred_uk3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.40%E -2.94%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Paddy Power3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -9.40%E -2.94%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -9.51%E -5.09%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -12.23%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-17 08:05
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -12.23%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-17 08:06
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -12.23%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-17 08:06
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -12.23%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -7.57%E -3.97%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-17 08:06
Sky Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -12.23%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -10.48%E -5.66%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -12.23%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.54%EV -12.41%E -6.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.12%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-17 10:40
NetBet (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.03%EV -12.23%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.81%EV -13.86%E -7.79%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-17 08:20
Winamax (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -15.06%E -5.02%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.23%EV -11.93%E -6.55%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.51%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-17 08:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 28.18%EV -15.06%E -5.02%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.20%EV -11.45%E -6.25%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.62%EV -23.12%E -7.01%K -10.05%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-17 10:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%0.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%0.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%0.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%0.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%1.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Kalshi3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%2.9%2026-05-17 03:00