La escuela de los momios

SC Paderborn v FC Schalke 04

Inicio: 2026-04-26 11:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SC Paderborn (Local)

Predicción 40.41%2.47momio equitativo
EV -3.01%
Ventaja -1.25%
Kelly -2.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.38%40.32%40.45%42.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.072.262.302.4048.31%44.28%43.48%41.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Schalke 04 (Visitante)

Predicción 31.27%3.20momio equitativo
EV +0.372%
Ventaja +0.116%
Kelly +0.168%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.58%31.28%31.35%33.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.952.983.2138.02%33.92%33.56%31.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.32%3.53momio equitativo
EV +1.94%
Ventaja +0.540%
Kelly +0.747%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.21%28.41%28.20%30.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.273.303.6034.48%30.60%30.30%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -9.95%E -3.45%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV +1.94%E +0.540%K +0.747%G +0.015%6.0%2026-04-23 16:09
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.79%EV -3.01%E -1.25%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -0.889%E -0.254%K -0.356%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-24 03:40
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -3.07%E -0.989%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -2.31%E -0.668%K -0.941%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 11:00
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -3.07%E -0.989%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -2.31%E -0.668%K -0.941%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 10:55
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -3.07%E -0.989%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 12:05
Codere (IT)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.72%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.49%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 23:34
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -10.88%E -3.82%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 18:58
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -10.88%E -3.82%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:15
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -10.88%E -3.82%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:15
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 10:54
TABtouch2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:00
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 10:55
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 10:54
Grosvenor2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:00
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:00
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:00
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -11.90%E -5.46%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:00
LeoVegas2.17I 46.08%NM 42.56%EV -12.30%E -5.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 11:00
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -12.45%E -4.45%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 18:59
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -12.45%E -4.45%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-24 03:40
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -15.57%E -5.77%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 16:09
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -15.57%E -5.77%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 16:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -15.57%E -5.77%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 16:10
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -15.57%E -5.77%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 16:08
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -5.14%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 11:34
Bovada2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.55%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 19:08
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -3.01%E -1.25%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -6.55%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 10:55
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.76%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.55%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 16:09
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.72%EV -7.86%E -3.45%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.15%EV -6.82%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -6.55%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-20 01:30
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 40.72%EV -7.86%E -3.45%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.15%EV -6.82%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.13%EV -6.55%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-20 01:30
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.55%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 16:43
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -12.45%E -4.45%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.55%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 19:00
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -15.57%E -5.77%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -7.97%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 19:00
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.41%EV -15.13%E -7.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -7.76%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -7.97%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 11:00
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.41%EV -15.13%E -7.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -7.76%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -7.97%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 10:55
PMU (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 42.54%EV -16.34%E -7.90%K -15.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -7.97%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-23 11:00
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.07%E -0.989%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-20 09:55
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 11:00
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.63%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.43%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 11:30
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -13.11%E -6.10%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -12.45%E -4.45%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -10.80%E -3.43%K -5.02%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-20 11:35
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 41.13%EV -13.92%E -6.53%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.06%EV -11.82%E -4.19%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.81%EV -10.80%E -3.43%K -5.02%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-20 01:30
Pinnacle2.40I 41.67%NM 39.77%EV -3.01%E -1.25%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.73%EV +0.372%E +0.116%K +0.168%G +0.001%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.49%EV -11.37%E -3.63%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 20:00
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -12.22%E -3.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 00:20
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -12.22%E -3.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 00:20
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -12.22%E -3.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 00:20
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -12.22%E -3.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 00:20
1xBet2.37I 42.19%NM 39.50%EV -4.22%E -1.78%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.10%EV -2.75%E -0.886%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.40%EV -12.78%E -4.15%K -6.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 20:24
Marathon Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -3.07%E -0.989%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -12.78%E -4.15%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 20:19
LowVig.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -3.81%E -1.60%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -3.07%E -0.989%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -15.05%E -5.02%K -7.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 15:54
BetOnline.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -3.81%E -1.60%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -3.07%E -0.989%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -15.05%E -5.02%K -7.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 15:54
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.01%E -1.25%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -15.05%E -5.02%K -7.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 15:54
Suprabets2.32I 43.10%NM 39.58%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.81%EV -3.69%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -15.05%E -5.02%K -7.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 16:42
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -3.07%E -0.989%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -15.05%E -5.02%K -7.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 16:45
NetBet (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 40.25%EV -12.30%E -5.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.64%EV -10.88%E -3.82%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -15.05%E -5.02%K -7.52%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-23 06:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.38%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.83%EV -17.76%E -6.75%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.79%EV -15.05%E -5.02%K -7.52%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-23 18:59
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.07%EV -13.11%E -6.10%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.23%EV -10.88%E -3.82%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -17.88%E -6.17%K -9.41%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-23 16:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%6.1%2026-04-24 00:15
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 41.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%8.1%2026-04-23 20:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 52.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 24.60%3.40I 29.41%NM 22.43%31.1%2026-04-24 03:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 52.96%3.10I 32.26%NM 24.60%3.40I 29.41%NM 22.43%31.1%2026-04-24 03:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 41.26%1.44I 69.44%NM 41.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 17.48%68.3%2026-04-24 03:45