Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn v Dynamo Dresden

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Paderborn (Local)

Prediction 52.66%1.90fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.04%52.77%52.57%54.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.751.751.8363.29%57.30%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dynamo Dresden (Visit)

Prediction 22.55%4.43fair odd
EV +1.48%
Edge +0.329%
Kelly +0.423%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.96%22.47%22.55%23.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.114.104.5027.03%24.35%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.79%4.03fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%24.76%24.88%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.713.753.9030.77%26.98%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Paderborn (Local): 52.66%; Dynamo Dresden (Visit): 22.55%; Draw: 24.79%. For Dynamo Dresden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.85%EV -9.43%E -5.48%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV +1.48%E +0.329%K +0.423%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -3.31%E -0.848%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 11:45
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.37%EV -4.69%E -2.59%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.61%EV +0.803%E +0.180%K +0.231%G +0.002%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.02%EV -4.30%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-21 11:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.39%EV -6.27%E -3.52%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -0.775%E -0.176%K -0.228%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 11:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.39%EV -6.27%E -3.52%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -0.775%E -0.176%K -0.228%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 11:34
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.57%EV -6.80%E -3.84%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -0.775%E -0.176%K -0.228%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.89%EV -5.54%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -9.96%E -5.82%K -14.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -0.775%E -0.176%K -0.228%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 11:44
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.45%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV -2.35%E -0.544%K -0.707%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -7.03%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 11:34
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -2.35%E -0.544%K -0.707%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 11:44
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.44%EV -6.80%E -3.84%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -3.03%E -0.705%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -4.55%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-21 11:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.06%EV -7.33%E -4.16%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -4.16%E -0.978%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.97%EV -7.27%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 11:45
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.46%EV -4.17%E -2.29%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -4.55%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 11:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.22%E -2.90%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-21 11:29
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -6.80%E -3.84%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.31%E -0.848%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-21 11:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%EV -6.80%E -3.84%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -4.55%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%EV -6.80%E -3.84%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -4.55%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 10:59
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.13%EV -7.33%E -4.16%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-21 11:53
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:59
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 10:59
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 11:00
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 11:00
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 11:00
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 11:45
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%EV -10.48%E -6.17%K -14.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -13.22%E -3.78%K -5.29%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 11:44
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -3.64%E -1.99%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 11:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -5.22%E -2.90%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.13%EV -8.38%E -4.82%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 11:00
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.13%EV -8.38%E -4.82%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 11:00
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.17%EV -6.80%E -3.84%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -9.51%E -2.60%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 11:34
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.10%EV -8.91%E -5.15%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -7.03%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-21 11:00
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.07%EV -6.27%E -3.52%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.88%EV -8.67%E -2.14%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-21 11:30
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.07%EV -6.27%E -3.52%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.88%EV -8.67%E -2.14%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-21 11:29
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -5.22%E -2.90%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 11:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -6.80%E -3.84%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-21 11:55
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -6.80%E -3.84%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -7.03%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 11:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.92%EV -6.27%E -3.52%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 11:20
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-21 11:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-21 11:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-21 11:34
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.85%E -4.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-21 11:30
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.95%EV -10.48%E -6.17%K -14.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -15.70%E -4.62%K -6.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.03%EV -11.54%E -6.87%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.56%EV -10.92%E -2.77%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -9.51%E -2.60%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-21 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.03%EV -11.54%E -6.87%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.56%EV -10.92%E -2.77%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -9.51%E -2.60%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-21 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -7.33%E -4.16%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-21 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -8.91%E -5.15%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -8.91%E -5.15%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -8.91%E -5.15%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.97%EV -8.91%E -5.15%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.19%EV -9.96%E -5.82%K -14.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.93%EV -11.24%E -3.14%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-21 11:33
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.78%EV -13.12%E -7.95%K -20.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.33%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -13.22%E -3.78%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-21 11:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 53.08%EV -16.80%E -10.64%K -28.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.50%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.41%EV -18.18%E -5.51%K -7.91%G +0.000%19.2%2026-03-21 11:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.67%EV -12.59%E -7.58%K -19.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.71%EV -13.18%E -3.42%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.63%EV -11.99%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-21 11:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.04%EV -12.06%E -7.22%K -18.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.73%EV -15.43%E -4.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.23%EV -19.42%E -5.98%K -8.63%G +0.000%17.3%2026-03-21 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.77%EV -10.48%E -6.17%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.79%EV -16.56%E -4.48%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.45%EV -10.75%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-21 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%0.6%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%0.6%2026-03-21 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%0.6%2026-03-21 11:55
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 54.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-03-21 11:55
Smarkets1.84I 54.35%NM 53.60%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.97%1.4%2026-03-21 11:55
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.56%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-03-21 11:35