La escuela de los momios

SC Paderborn v 1. FC Magdeburg

Inicio: 2026-04-12 11:30 UTC

Final: SC Paderborn 4–3 1. FC Magdeburg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SC Paderborn (Local)

Predicción 51.53%1.94momio equitativo
EV -3.13%
Ventaja -1.66%
Kelly -3.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.19%51.44%51.54%52.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.681.811.801.8859.52%55.30%55.56%53.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

1. FC Magdeburg (Visitante)

Predicción 24.93%4.01momio equitativo
EV -1.53%
Ventaja -0.387%
Kelly -0.519%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.00%25.01%24.88%26.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.643.603.9530.30%27.49%27.78%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.54%4.25momio equitativo
EV -1.12%
Ventaja -0.267%
Kelly -0.350%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.64%23.55%23.58%25.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.883.904.2030.30%25.77%25.64%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -3.13%E -1.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -11.50%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -3.13%E -1.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -11.50%E -3.24%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Unibet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -3.64%E -1.95%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -7.01%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Grosvenor1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -3.64%E -1.95%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -7.01%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -3.64%E -1.95%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -7.01%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Unibet (NL)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -3.64%E -1.95%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -7.01%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Unibet (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -3.64%E -1.95%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -7.01%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 11:00
TABtouch1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -3.64%E -1.95%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -7.01%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 11:00
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -3.64%E -1.95%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -7.01%E -1.77%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Pinnacle1.86I 53.76%NM 52.02%EV -4.16%E -2.24%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%EV -1.53%E -0.387%K -0.519%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.48%EV -3.00%E -0.729%K -0.963%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Bovada1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -4.67%E -2.53%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.76%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 08:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -4.67%E -2.53%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-05 11:54
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -4.67%E -2.53%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-05 11:55
Coolbet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -6.52%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.12%E -0.267%K -0.350%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 10:59
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 51.74%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -4.02%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 11:00
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -2.78%E -0.712%K -0.957%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 10:59
Codere (IT)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 11:00
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 09:00
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 10:59
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.76%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 11:00
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 11:00
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 11:00
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 50.01%EV -5.70%E -3.12%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -13.99%E -4.06%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-12 11:00
Unibet (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.54%EV -6.22%E -3.42%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -6.52%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 10:59
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.46%EV -6.22%E -3.42%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.78%EV -5.77%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.77%EV -7.24%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 11:00
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -6.22%E -3.42%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -9.01%E -2.47%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 11:00
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -2.78%E -0.712%K -0.957%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 10:58
Suprabets1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -4.02%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.74%EV -7.24%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 10:56
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 51.84%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -4.02%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 11:00
Marathon Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.80%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.66%EV -7.24%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 11:00
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.76%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 11:00
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -3.48%E -0.848%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 11:00
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -5.27%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 11:00
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.76%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 11:00
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.76%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 11:00
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 11:00
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 10:59
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -6.52%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 11:00
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -6.52%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 11:00
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -6.52%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 11:00
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.25%E -4.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -6.52%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 11:00
Virgin Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 49.71%EV -7.76%E -4.34%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -16.49%E -4.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.72%E -3.12%K -4.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-12 11:00
LiveScore Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 49.71%EV -7.76%E -4.34%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -16.49%E -4.92%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.72%E -3.12%K -4.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-12 11:00
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -8.28%E -4.65%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 11:00
PMU (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 49.78%EV -9.31%E -5.29%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -17.73%E -5.37%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -12.89%E -3.48%K -4.78%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-12 11:00
Betclic (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -9.83%E -5.61%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.76%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 10:59
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.39%EV -9.83%E -5.61%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -7.76%E -2.10%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.89%E -3.48%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-12 10:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -9.83%E -5.61%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -12.89%E -3.48%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 11:00
Neds1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -9.83%E -5.61%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -12.89%E -3.48%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 11:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -9.83%E -5.61%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -12.89%E -3.48%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 11:00
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -9.83%E -5.61%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -12.89%E -3.48%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 11:00
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -9.83%E -5.61%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -10.26%E -2.85%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -15.25%E -4.24%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-12 11:00
Unibet (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 51.85%EV -10.34%E -5.94%K -13.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.72%EV -9.01%E -2.47%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-12 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.19%EV -10.86%E -6.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.03%EV -15.24%E -4.48%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.79%EV -22.31%E -6.76%K -9.70%G +0.000%17.5%2026-04-12 08:15
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 51.06%EV -11.37%E -6.61%K -15.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -15.24%E -4.48%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.11%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-12 11:00
NetBet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 51.87%EV -13.43%E -8.00%K -19.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.90%EV -12.75%E -3.64%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -11.72%E -3.12%K -4.26%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-12 11:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-12 11:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-12 11:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-12 11:00
Matchbook1.91I 52.36%NM 51.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-12 11:00
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.54%1.9%2026-04-12 07:20
Smarkets1.90I 52.63%NM 51.59%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-04-12 11:00