La escuela de los momios

Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98

Inicio: 2026-05-03 11:30 UTC

Final: Karlsruher SC 2–1 SV Darmstadt 98

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Karlsruher SC (Local)

Predicción 36.88%2.71momio equitativo
EV -0.412%
Ventaja -0.153%
Kelly -0.243%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.56%36.79%36.91%38.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.352.552.552.7042.55%39.27%39.22%37.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante)

Predicción 38.82%2.58momio equitativo
EV -2.57%
Ventaja -1.02%
Kelly -1.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.92%38.84%38.84%40.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.362.372.5145.45%42.45%42.28%39.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.30%4.12momio equitativo
EV -2.32%
Ventaja -0.578%
Kelly -0.769%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.29%24.37%24.25%26.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.723.734.0231.25%26.88%26.85%24.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.25%EV -9.55%E -4.10%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 10:45
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.25%EV -9.55%E -4.10%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 10:45
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -9.94%E -4.29%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 10:45
Casumo2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -9.94%E -4.29%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 10:45
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -9.94%E -4.29%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 10:45
Grosvenor2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -9.94%E -4.29%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 10:45
TABtouch2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -9.94%E -4.29%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 10:45
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -9.94%E -4.29%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 10:45
betPARX2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -0.412%E -0.153%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -9.94%E -4.29%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 10:45
Tipico (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -2.26%E -0.852%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -8.78%E -3.74%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -5.24%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -2.26%E -0.852%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.17%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 10:45
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -2.26%E -0.852%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.17%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 10:45
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 34.74%EV -2.26%E -0.852%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -11.31%E -3.10%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 10:44
Pinnacle2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.61%EV -2.57%E -1.02%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.11%EV -2.32%E -0.578%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 11:25
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -2.81%E -0.702%K -0.936%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:05
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.90%E -2.00%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:00
LowVig.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.36%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.43%EV -4.51%E -1.83%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 11:05
BetOnline.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.36%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.43%EV -4.51%E -1.83%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 11:05
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -4.10%E -1.58%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 10:54
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.34%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.86%EV -4.90%E -2.00%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -2.81%E -0.702%K -0.936%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 11:09
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -4.90%E -2.00%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -5.24%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 11:05
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.99%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -5.24%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 11:10
Unibet (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -5.24%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 11:10
Bovada2.55I 39.22%NM 36.70%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.45%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 11:07
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.46%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.74%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 11:25
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-03 11:25
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 34.94%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.96%EV -13.44%E -6.03%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.10%EV -13.74%E -3.87%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-03 10:45
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 34.94%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.96%EV -13.44%E -6.03%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.10%EV -13.74%E -3.87%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-03 10:45
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.63%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -14.60%E -6.64%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -14.96%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-03 10:45
Marathon Bet2.54I 39.37%NM 36.72%EV -6.31%E -2.49%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.42%EV -7.18%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:05
Suprabets2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -7.05%E -2.80%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.46%EV -7.18%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:03
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.46%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -4.90%E -2.00%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%EV -6.45%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 11:05
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -5.24%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 11:20
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:10
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:10
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:10
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 11:10
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 11:01
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 11:00
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 11:01
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 11:01
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -7.79%E -3.12%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 10:55
Betsson2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -8.53%E -3.44%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.67%EV -7.61%E -3.20%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:10
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -8.53%E -3.44%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.67%EV -7.61%E -3.20%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.67%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.15%EV -8.78%E -3.74%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -4.02%E -1.02%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:10
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.47%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.71%EV -12.66%E -5.63%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:10
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -14.96%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 11:25
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -14.96%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 11:05
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -14.96%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 11:01
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -14.96%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 11:01
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -9.63%E -3.93%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.52%EV -10.72%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -14.96%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-03 11:00
Betclic (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 36.73%EV -10.37%E -4.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.15%EV -11.50%E -5.04%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 11:07
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%EV -2.96%E -1.18%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.20%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.40%EV -14.60%E -6.64%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.40%EV -22.25%E -6.95%K -10.11%G +0.000%18.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.32%EV -13.32%E -5.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.98%EV -12.66%E -5.63%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -10.10%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-03 11:10
NetBet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.88%EV -13.32%E -5.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.04%EV -13.82%E -6.23%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.08%EV -12.53%E -3.48%K -4.82%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-03 11:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.99%2.50I 40.00%NM 40.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.99%-0.0%2026-05-03 11:10
Matchbook2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%0.8%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.35%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-05-03 11:20
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.52%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.52%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.52%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-05-03 11:25