Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 16:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Karlsruher SC (Local)

Prediction 29.05%3.44fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.397%
Kelly +0.557%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.60%29.07%28.98%30.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.103.103.4936.36%32.24%32.26%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 45.50%2.20fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.800%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.41%45.42%45.50%46.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.032.052.1652.63%49.20%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.45%3.93fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -0.863%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.33%25.51%25.51%27.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.563.553.8032.26%28.11%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karlsruher SC (Local): 29.05%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 45.50%; Draw: 25.45%. For Karlsruher SC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 27.69%EV +1.39%E +0.397%K +0.557%G +0.008%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.47%EV -5.37%E -2.58%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.84%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-10 16:29
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -1.23%E -0.361%K -0.511%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Suprabets🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -2.10%E -0.623%K -0.886%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.51%EV -8.55%E -4.26%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.75%EV -7.60%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 27.94%EV -2.97%E -0.889%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.43%EV -8.55%E -4.26%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.64%EV -7.35%E -2.02%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -4.13%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 16:30
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.13%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -9.01%E -4.50%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 16:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.59%E -1.72%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:27
BetMGM🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.59%E -1.72%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:29
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.59%E -1.72%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -9.01%E -4.50%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-10 16:30
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -5.59%E -1.72%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 16:30
LowVig.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -5.59%E -1.72%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -8.10%E -4.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 16:29
BetOnline.ag🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -5.59%E -1.72%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -8.10%E -4.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 16:29
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.04%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.46%E -2.12%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-10 16:30
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.04%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -7.10%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-10 16:30
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -7.04%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.08%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 16:29
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.04%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-10 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.04%E -2.20%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-10 16:29
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -8.49%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.97%EV -1.73%E -0.800%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.88%EV -6.59%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-10 16:29
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -8.49%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Everygame🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -8.49%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.20%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.10%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 16:29
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -8.49%E -2.70%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.50%EV -12.65%E -6.59%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-10 16:29
Coolbet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.44%EV -8.78%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -9.01%E -4.50%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -3.28%E -0.863%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 28.64%EV -9.36%E -3.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.05%EV -11.74%E -6.05%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.31%EV -10.15%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-10 16:29
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.46%E -2.12%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.28%E -0.863%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 16:29
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -5.82%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 16:29
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 16:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.01%E -4.50%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-10 16:30
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -16.00%E -4.85%K -6.96%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-10 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -6.73%E -3.28%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -16.00%E -4.85%K -6.96%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -11.28%E -5.79%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-10 16:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -11.28%E -5.79%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-10 16:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -9.94%E -3.21%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -13.10%E -6.86%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -21.10%E -6.80%K -10.05%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-10 16:29
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -11.40%E -3.74%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -8.10%E -4.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -7.10%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -11.40%E -3.74%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -8.10%E -4.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -7.10%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.55%EV -11.40%E -3.74%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 45.83%EV -13.56%E -7.14%K -15.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.61%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-10 16:29
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -3.55%E -1.67%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.10%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 16:29
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -3.55%E -1.67%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.10%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 16:30
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -3.55%E -1.67%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.10%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 16:24
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.30%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.85%EV -10.83%E -5.52%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-10 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -11.28%E -5.79%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -11.28%E -5.79%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-10 16:30
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -12.85%E -4.28%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.82%EV -13.10%E -6.86%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.01%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-10 16:30
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -14.30%E -4.85%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -4.46%E -2.12%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -14.30%E -4.85%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -4.46%E -2.12%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -14.30%E -4.85%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -4.46%E -2.12%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -14.30%E -4.85%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -4.46%E -2.12%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -14.30%E -4.85%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -4.46%E -2.12%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.64%E -2.72%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-10 16:30
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -14.30%E -4.85%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.61%EV -5.82%E -2.81%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-10 16:30
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -15.75%E -5.43%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.50%EV -6.28%E -3.05%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -15.75%E -5.43%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.50%EV -6.28%E -3.05%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -15.75%E -5.43%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.50%EV -6.28%E -3.05%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-10 16:30
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -16.33%E -5.67%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.49%EV -7.19%E -3.52%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -12.19%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-10 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.67%EV -16.33%E -5.67%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.73%EV -8.10%E -4.01%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -12.19%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-10 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.76%EV -20.11%E -7.31%K -11.49%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 43.60%EV -11.74%E -6.05%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.63%EV -16.00%E -4.85%K -6.96%G +0.000%18.2%2026-04-10 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.55I 28.17%NM 28.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.25%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%0.1%2026-04-10 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.06%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-04-10 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%0.5%2026-04-10 16:30
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.60%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.30%1.4%2026-04-10 16:30
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.95%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.54%1.7%2026-04-10 16:30
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 30.21%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.31%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%6.1%2026-04-10 16:30