Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.02
assuming max odds 2.28
assuming max odds 4.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karlsruher SC (Local): 32.98%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 42.90%; Draw: 24.12%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.29%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.42%EV -6.00%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -6.91%E -3.18%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV +1.29%E +0.307%K +0.403%G +0.005% | 5.0% | 2026-09-17 11:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +1.29%E +0.307%K +0.403%G +0.005% | 7.1% | 2026-09-17 11:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.97%EV -9.05%E -4.27%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -1.12%E -0.274%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-17 11:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.54%E -0.884%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-15 21:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -3.54%E -0.884%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-17 11:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -3.54%E -0.884%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-18 11:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -3.54%E -0.884%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-17 11:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -3.54%E -0.884%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-17 11:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -12.06%E -5.88%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -3.54%E -0.884%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-17 11:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.05%E -0.349%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.41%EV -4.76%E -2.15%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.46%EV -4.98%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-18 13:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -2.70%E -0.914%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.95%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-18 12:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -6.00%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.95%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-18 04:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -6.00%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.95%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-18 11:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -4.76%E -2.15%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -5.95%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-18 10:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -5.95%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-18 10:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.95%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-17 16:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.95%E -1.52%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-17 16:58 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.55%EV -0.388%E -0.129%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -6.91%E -3.18%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.55%EV -6.43%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-16 02:51 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.55%EV -0.388%E -0.129%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -6.91%E -3.18%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.55%EV -6.43%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-16 02:51 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.30%EV -2.19%E -0.960%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.15%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.30%EV -2.19%E -0.960%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.15%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.30%EV -2.19%E -0.960%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.15%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.30%EV -2.19%E -0.960%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.15%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 10:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.30%EV -2.19%E -0.960%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.15%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 10:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.30%EV -2.19%E -0.960%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.15%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 10:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.30%EV -2.19%E -0.960%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.15%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.30%EV -2.19%E -0.960%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -7.15%E -1.86%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -4.35%E -1.50%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -8.36%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-15 12:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.34%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.36%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-18 10:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -12.59%E -4.75%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -8.36%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-18 12:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -12.06%E -5.88%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.36%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-17 11:01 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -4.35%E -1.50%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -6.91%E -3.18%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.72%EV -8.84%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-18 11:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.17%EV -4.68%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.24%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.59%EV -8.84%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-18 11:09 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.04%EV -4.68%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.27%EV -8.19%E -3.83%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -9.56%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-18 11:12 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -6.00%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.56%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-18 11:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -6.48%E -2.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -9.56%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-18 10:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -6.00%E -2.10%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -9.56%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-18 04:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -9.56%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-18 10:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -9.29%E -3.38%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -9.56%E -2.55%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-18 10:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -12.59%E -4.75%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.24%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -10.77%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -12.59%E -4.75%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.24%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -10.77%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-17 10:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -12.59%E -4.75%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.24%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -10.77%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.77%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-17 10:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.77%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-17 10:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.77%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-17 10:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -10.94%E -4.05%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -9.91%E -4.72%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.77%E -2.91%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-17 10:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 33.16%EV -11.93%E -4.47%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.78%EV -11.20%E -5.41%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 24.06%EV -11.25%E -3.06%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-18 10:03 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -12.59%E -4.75%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.98%E -3.28%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -12.59%E -4.75%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -5.62%E -2.55%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.98%E -3.28%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-17 10:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.13%EV -12.59%E -4.75%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -12.06%E -5.88%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -11.98%E -3.28%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-18 11:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.18%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-17 09:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.18%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-17 09:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.18%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-17 09:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.64%E -2.73%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.77%E -3.61%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -13.18%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-17 09:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -14.24%E -5.48%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.03%EV -6.91%E -3.18%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.18%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-17 10:51 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.85%EV -11.93%E -4.47%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.79%EV -12.06%E -5.88%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -13.18%E -3.66%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-18 10:24 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.34% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50% | 2.1% | 2026-09-18 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.32% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.08% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.60% | 3.3% | 2026-09-18 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.16% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17% | 3.4% | 2026-09-18 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.16% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17% | 3.4% | 2026-09-18 14:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.16% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17% | 3.4% | 2026-09-18 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.88% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.54% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58% | 3.4% | 2026-09-18 15:00 |