Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Magdeburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 11:00 UTC

Final: Holstein Kiel 1–3 1. FC Magdeburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prediction 31.41%3.18fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.646%
Kelly -0.950%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.38%31.37%31.46%32.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.993.1236.36%33.99%33.44%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 44.80%2.23fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.51%44.74%44.85%45.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.062.072.1551.81%48.43%48.31%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.80%4.20fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.473%
Kelly -0.625%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.96%23.89%23.69%26.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.823.804.1231.25%26.19%26.32%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Holstein Kiel (Local): 31.41%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit): 44.80%; Draw: 23.80%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.12, with an expected value of -1.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.97%EV -2.01%E -0.646%K -0.950%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.58%EV -5.03%E -2.37%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.45%EV -1.95%E -0.473%K -0.625%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-09 05:14
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -2.64%E -0.853%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 02:09
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.28%EV -6.82%E -3.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 05:14
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 02:09
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 02:09
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.64%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 05:14
Suprabets🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.04%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -7.72%E -3.75%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.60%EV -5.76%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 05:12
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -3.69%E -1.72%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-08 13:24
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.59%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.71%EV -5.03%E -2.37%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-08 13:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 05:14
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 13:07
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 14:34
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 05:14
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 05:14
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 13:09
Everygame🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 05:14
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 05:14
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:43
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.48%EV -6.82%E -3.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 22:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.48%EV -6.82%E -3.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 22:44
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.13%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -8.38%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 05:14
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.60%EV -7.27%E -3.51%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 02:09
1xBet🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.32%EV -6.10%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.03%EV -6.82%E -3.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.65%EV -5.76%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 05:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.19%EV -6.10%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.27%EV -7.72%E -3.75%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.55%EV -5.76%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 05:15
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -7.35%E -2.49%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 05:11
Betclic (FR)🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.09%EV -7.98%E -2.72%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.55%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 05:14
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.51%EV -8.30%E -2.84%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 05:14
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.51%EV -8.30%E -2.84%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 05:14
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -3.69%E -1.72%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 15:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 14:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 14:09
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 05:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 12:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 12:45
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 05:14
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 05:14
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 13:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.52%EV -11.30%E -5.71%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -8.38%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-09 05:14
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-06 20:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 22:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 22:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -10.49%E -3.68%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 05:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.77%EV -10.49%E -3.68%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.52%EV -11.75%E -5.97%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -15.52%E -4.37%K -6.08%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-08 22:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 15:09
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 15:10
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 15:08
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-06 11:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -13.63%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.87%EV -12.20%E -6.22%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-09 05:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -13.63%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.98%EV -13.54%E -7.02%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.46%EV -11.95%E -3.23%K -4.42%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-08 12:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.92%EV -13.63%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.51%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -23.85%E -7.45%K -10.84%G +0.000%17.6%2026-05-08 14:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-05-09 05:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-05-09 05:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-05-09 05:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-05-09 05:14
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-05-09 05:14
Kalshi3.03I 33.00%NM 32.02%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.71%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.27%3.1%2026-05-09 00:04