L’École des cotes

Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Magdeburg

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-09 11:00 UTC

Score final : Holstein Kiel 1–3 1. FC Magdeburg

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Holstein Kiel (Local)

Prévision 31.41%3.18cote équitable
EV -2.01%
Avantage -0.646%
Kelly -0.950%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.12

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.38%31.37%31.46%32.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.752.942.993.1236.36%33.99%33.44%32.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

1. FC Magdeburg (Visiteur)

Prévision 44.80%2.23cote équitable
EV -3.69%
Avantage -1.72%
Kelly -3.21%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.51%44.74%44.85%45.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.932.062.072.1551.81%48.43%48.31%46.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 23.80%4.20cote équitable
EV -1.95%
Avantage -0.473%
Kelly -0.625%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.12

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.96%23.89%23.69%26.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.823.804.1231.25%26.19%26.32%24.27%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle3.12I 32.05%NM 30.97%EV -2.01%E -0.646%K -0.950%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.58%EV -5.03%E -2.37%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.45%EV -1.95%E -0.473%K -0.625%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-09 05:14
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -2.64%E -0.853%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 02:09
LowVig.ag3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.28%EV -6.82%E -3.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 05:14
Svenska Spel3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 02:09
ATG (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 02:09
BetOnline.ag3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -4.21%E -1.38%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.64%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 05:14
Suprabets3.01I 33.22%NM 31.04%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -7.72%E -3.75%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.60%EV -5.76%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 05:12
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -3.69%E -1.72%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-08 13:24
Coolbet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.59%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.71%EV -5.03%E -2.37%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-08 13:59
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 05:14
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 13:07
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 14:34
Codere (IT)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 05:14
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -6.00%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 05:14
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 13:09
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 05:14
Bet Victor3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 05:14
Unibet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:43
TABtouch3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
Unibet (NL)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
Grosvenor3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
Unibet (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
Casumo3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
betPARX3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:44
BetRivers3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.48%EV -6.82%E -3.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 22:44
LeoVegas (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.48%EV -6.82%E -3.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 22:44
PlayUp3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.13%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -8.38%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 05:14
LeoVegas3.00I 33.33%NM 30.78%EV -5.78%E -1.93%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.60%EV -7.27%E -3.51%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 02:09
1xBet2.99I 33.44%NM 31.32%EV -6.10%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.03%EV -6.82%E -3.28%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.65%EV -5.76%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 05:14
Marathon Bet2.99I 33.44%NM 31.19%EV -6.10%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.27%EV -7.72%E -3.75%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.55%EV -5.76%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 05:15
Bovada2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -7.35%E -2.49%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 05:11
Betclic (FR)2.93I 34.13%NM 31.09%EV -7.98%E -2.72%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.55%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 05:14
Betsson2.92I 34.25%NM 31.51%EV -8.30%E -2.84%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 05:14
NordicBet2.92I 34.25%NM 31.51%EV -8.30%E -2.84%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 05:14
theScore Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -3.69%E -1.72%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 15:40
Betr (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 14:09
PointsBet (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 14:09
Betway2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 05:14
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 12:44
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 12:45
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 05:14
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 05:14
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 13:09
Unibet (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -8.92%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.52%EV -11.30%E -5.71%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -8.38%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-09 05:14
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-06 20:50
Virgin Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 22:44
LiveScore Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -9.55%E -3.32%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 22:44
Winamax (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -10.49%E -3.68%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 05:14
PMU (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 30.77%EV -10.49%E -3.68%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.52%EV -11.75%E -5.97%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -15.52%E -4.37%K -6.08%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-08 22:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 15:09
Neds2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 15:10
Coral2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -8.17%E -3.98%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 15:08
Sky Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -12.06%E -4.31%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-06 11:04
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -13.63%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.87%EV -12.20%E -6.22%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-09 05:14
NetBet (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -13.63%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.98%EV -13.54%E -7.02%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.46%EV -11.95%E -3.23%K -4.42%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-08 12:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 30.92%EV -13.63%E -4.96%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.51%EV -10.41%E -5.20%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.57%EV -23.85%E -7.45%K -10.84%G +0.000%17.6%2026-05-08 14:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-05-09 05:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-05-09 05:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-05-09 05:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-05-09 05:14
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.19%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-05-09 05:14
Kalshi3.03I 33.00%NM 32.02%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.71%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.27%3.1%2026-05-09 00:04