Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin v Greuther Fürth

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 11:30 UTC

Final: Hertha Berlin 2–1 Greuther Fürth

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Prediction 50.98%1.96fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.82%50.92%51.01%52.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.821.831.8959.52%54.89%54.64%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greuther Fürth (Visit)

Prediction 26.02%3.84fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.716%
Kelly -0.977%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.28%26.04%25.98%27.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.543.553.7431.75%28.27%28.17%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.254%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.93%23.04%23.01%25.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.923.904.3030.30%25.51%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hertha Berlin (Local): 50.98%; Greuther Fürth (Visit): 26.02%; Draw: 23.00%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.30, with an expected value of -1.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.11%EV -3.65%E -1.93%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.83%EV -2.68%E -0.716%K -0.977%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.06%EV -3.62%E -0.865%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-09 23:49
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -4.16%E -2.22%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 23:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -4.16%E -2.22%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 23:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -4.16%E -2.22%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 23:34
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -4.16%E -2.22%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 01:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -4.67%E -2.50%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -3.72%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-07 11:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -4.67%E -2.50%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -3.72%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-07 11:35
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -4.67%E -2.50%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 10:09
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-08 01:10
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 00:55
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.41%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 01:51
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:34
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:34
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:34
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:34
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.18%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 11:35
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.96%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 23:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -5.69%E -3.08%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 23:29
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.88%EV -6.20%E -3.37%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.12%EV -6.84%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 23:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 23:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.72%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.69%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 20:29
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -1.09%E -0.254%K -0.332%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 13:34
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 00:53
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 09:34
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 23:35
Suprabets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.51%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.26%EV -8.40%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.23%EV -8.45%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 23:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 23:29
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -7.99%E -2.00%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 23:23
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 11:34
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.43%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -5.02%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-07 11:34
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-07 11:34
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 23:25
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 23:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 23:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.29%E -2.64%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 23:24
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -6.71%E -3.67%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -13.75%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 23:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -7.22%E -3.97%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.32%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-05 12:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.23%EV -7.22%E -3.97%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -5.80%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -6.84%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 23:24
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.24%EV -8.24%E -4.58%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.77%EV -6.84%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 11:05
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.24%EV -8.24%E -4.58%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.77%EV -6.84%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-04 11:05
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -8.24%E -4.58%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-10 00:54
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.24%E -4.58%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -13.75%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-10 00:54
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -8.24%E -4.58%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -14.13%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 01:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -8.24%E -4.58%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -14.13%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 01:10
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -8.24%E -4.58%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -14.13%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 01:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -8.24%E -4.58%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -14.13%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-08 01:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.75%EV -9.26%E -5.20%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -3.39%E -0.808%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 11:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.40%EV -9.77%E -5.52%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.11%EV -14.90%E -4.03%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 11:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.40%EV -9.77%E -5.52%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.11%EV -14.90%E -4.03%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-07 11:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.33%EV -10.79%E -6.17%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.53%EV -10.22%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.13%EV -16.05%E -4.40%K -6.05%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-07 11:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -11.30%E -6.49%K -15.27%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.37%EV -6.84%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.43%EV -6.84%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 23:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.82%EV -11.81%E -6.83%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -14.13%E -4.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -24.10%E -7.30%K -10.48%G +0.000%18.4%2026-05-09 23:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.36%EV -12.83%E -7.50%K -18.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -11.52%E -3.39%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.81%EV -11.44%E -2.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-09 23:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.16%EV -13.34%E -7.85%K -19.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -12.83%E -3.83%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.89%EV -12.59%E -3.31%K -4.50%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-09 23:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 50.47%EV -14.36%E -8.55%K -21.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.92%EV -18.03%E -5.72%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.61%EV -13.75%E -3.67%K -5.00%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-06 23:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 50.91%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-05-10 02:34
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.79%0.9%2026-05-10 02:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-05-10 02:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-05-10 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-05-10 02:04
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 50.87%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.63%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%1.3%2026-05-10 02:25