La escuela de los momios

Greuther Fürth v Rot-Weiss Essen

Inicio: 2026-05-26 18:30 UTC

Final: Greuther Fürth 2–0 Rot-Weiss Essen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

42 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Predicción 52.88%1.89momio equitativo
EV -3.23%
Ventaja -1.76%
Kelly -3.89%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.38%52.81%52.87%54.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.731.731.8361.73%57.68%57.80%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Rot-Weiss Essen (Visitante)

Predicción 23.27%4.30momio equitativo
EV +1.20%
Ventaja +0.277%
Kelly +0.359%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.49%23.26%23.30%24.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.034.004.3527.78%24.80%25.00%22.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.85%4.19momio equitativo
EV +0.182%
Ventaja +0.043%
Kelly +0.057%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.47%23.93%23.83%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.553.833.854.2028.17%26.11%25.97%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.73I 57.80%NM 54.31%EV -8.51%E -4.92%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV +1.20%E +0.277%K +0.359%G +0.004%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 17:39
ATG (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.31%EV -8.51%E -4.92%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV +1.20%E +0.277%K +0.359%G +0.004%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 17:40
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.46%EV -9.57%E -5.60%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-26 17:40
TABtouch1.71I 58.48%NM 54.46%EV -9.57%E -5.60%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-26 17:39
Grosvenor1.71I 58.48%NM 54.46%EV -9.57%E -5.60%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-26 17:39
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.46%EV -9.57%E -5.60%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-26 17:39
Casumo1.71I 58.48%NM 54.46%EV -9.57%E -5.60%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-26 17:39
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.46%EV -9.57%E -5.60%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-26 17:40
betPARX1.71I 58.48%NM 54.46%EV -9.57%E -5.60%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-26 17:40
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 54.44%EV -10.10%E -5.94%K -14.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-26 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.44%EV -10.10%E -5.94%K -14.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV +0.040%E +0.009%K +0.012%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-26 17:40
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -5.87%E -3.30%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.66%EV -0.890%E -0.209%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 23.10%EV -0.295%E -0.071%K -0.093%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-26 18:10
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -10.10%E -5.94%K -14.43%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -1.12%E -0.264%K -0.345%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-26 17:40
BetMGM1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.29%E -0.544%K -0.714%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-26 18:20
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -4.61%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-26 18:19
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 54.25%EV -13.27%E -8.09%K -20.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -4.61%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -11.74%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-26 17:30
LiveScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 54.25%EV -13.27%E -8.09%K -20.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -4.61%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -11.74%E -3.17%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-26 17:30
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.38%EV -14.33%E -8.85%K -23.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.49%EV -4.61%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%EV -12.94%E -3.54%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-26 17:30
Betclic (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.31%EV -7.99%E -4.59%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.90%EV -5.78%E -1.43%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-26 18:18
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.87%E -3.30%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.94%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 18:20
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 52.89%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -6.94%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -5.78%E -1.46%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 18:19
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -6.93%E -3.94%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.94%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.68%EV -6.02%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-26 18:18
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.94%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-26 18:20
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -8.10%E -2.05%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-26 18:20
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -8.10%E -2.05%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-26 18:20
Suprabets1.79I 55.87%NM 52.23%EV -5.34%E -2.98%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.79%EV -8.57%E -2.18%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-26 18:19
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.81%E -2.67%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -9.27%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-26 18:20
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.81%E -2.67%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.27%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 18:20
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 50.38%EV -3.23%E -1.76%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -9.27%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -15.32%E -4.32%K -6.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-26 18:19
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 50.38%EV -3.23%E -1.76%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -9.27%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -15.32%E -4.32%K -6.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-26 18:20
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.02%EV -5.87%E -3.30%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -10.43%E -2.71%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV +0.182%E +0.043%K +0.057%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-26 18:20
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-26 18:20
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-26 18:20
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-26 18:20
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-26 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.51%E -4.92%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -14.13%E -3.92%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-26 18:10
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.51%E -4.92%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -14.13%E -3.92%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-26 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.51%E -4.92%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -14.13%E -3.92%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-26 18:10
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.51%E -4.92%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.59%E -3.05%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -14.13%E -3.92%K -5.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-26 18:20
NetBet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 53.19%EV -12.74%E -7.72%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -12.76%E -3.40%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -10.55%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-26 18:20
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 52.85%EV -12.74%E -7.72%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -12.76%E -3.40%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.89%EV -12.94%E -3.54%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-26 18:20
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.12%EV -9.04%E -5.26%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -16.25%E -4.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.98%EV -6.97%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-26 18:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.