Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Greuther Fürth v Elversberg

Inicio: 2026-03-13 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Greuther Fürth (Local)

Predicción 21.33%4.69momio equitativo
EV +0.912%
Ventaja +0.193%
Kelly +0.244%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.43%21.29%21.32%22.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.294.254.7326.67%23.31%23.53%21.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Elversberg (Visitante)

Predicción 55.20%1.81momio equitativo
EV -3.96%
Ventaja -2.27%
Kelly -5.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.29%55.23%55.20%56.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.681.691.7465.79%59.56%59.17%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.47%4.26momio equitativo
EV -1.44%
Ventaja -0.342%
Kelly -0.448%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.71%23.48%23.48%26.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.893.954.2030.30%25.68%25.32%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Greuther Fürth (Local): 21.33%; Elversberg (Visitante): 55.20%; Empate: 23.47%. Para Greuther Fürth (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.69. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.73, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.912%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯4.73I 21.14%NM 20.43%EV +0.912%E +0.193%K +0.244%G +0.002%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.18%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.40%EV -3.08%E -0.745%K -0.983%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-13 17:25
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV +0.272%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.86%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV -3.78%E -0.922%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-13 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV +0.272%E +0.058%K +0.073%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.86%EV -4.51%E -2.61%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV -3.78%E -0.922%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-13 17:25
Tipico (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -1.86%E -0.405%K -0.517%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -3.78%E -0.922%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 17:15
1xBet🎯4.53I 22.08%NM 20.95%EV -3.35%E -0.741%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.50%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.55%EV -5.42%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-13 17:25
Coolbet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -3.99%E -0.888%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -1.44%E -0.342%K -0.448%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 17:24
DraftKings🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -3.99%E -0.888%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.62%EV -6.72%E -3.97%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-13 17:25
SportsBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -3.99%E -0.888%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-13 17:20
FanDuel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.99%E -0.888%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -6.72%E -3.97%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 17:13
Everygame🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.99%E -0.888%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.98%EV -5.06%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -7.27%E -4.33%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.46%EV -6.60%E -1.66%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-13 17:25
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -6.13%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.67%EV -6.72%E -3.97%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -3.78%E -0.922%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 15:15
Bovada🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.13%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-13 17:23
Bet Victor🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -6.13%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-13 17:24
PlayUp🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -6.13%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%EV -7.27%E -4.33%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -9.65%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-13 17:25
888sport🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.13%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 17:25
William Hill🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.13%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 17:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.13%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.13%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 17:25
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV -7.20%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.07%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-10 17:35
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -7.62%E -1.76%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-13 17:10
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.62%E -1.76%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-13 17:20
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -8.26%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -3.96%E -2.27%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -3.78%E -0.922%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 08:29
Svenska Spel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -8.26%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 17:45
ATG (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -8.26%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-06 17:45
Codere (IT)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -8.26%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -5.06%E -2.94%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-11 05:35
Betr (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -8.26%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.23%EV -7.27%E -4.33%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 17:24
Unibet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 17:45
Casumo🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 17:45
Unibet (SE)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 17:46
TABtouch🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 17:46
Grosvenor🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 17:45
betPARX🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 17:45
theScore Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.32%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 13:35
Betsson🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.63%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 01:09
NordicBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.63%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 01:09
BetRivers🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.47%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.47%EV -6.16%E -3.63%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 17:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -9.33%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-13 17:25
LeoVegas🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -10.40%E -2.48%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -7.27%E -4.33%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 17:45
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.40%E -2.48%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -7.82%E -4.68%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -15.52%E -4.31%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-13 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.55%EV -10.40%E -2.48%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.29%EV -10.58%E -6.53%K -17.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.16%EV -22.56%E -6.84%K -9.81%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-13 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -12.53%E -3.06%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -7.27%E -4.33%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 01:14
Betclic (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.84%EV -12.53%E -3.06%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.60%EV -9.48%E -5.78%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-13 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -12.53%E -3.06%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.58%EV -10.03%E -6.15%K -15.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-06 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV -12.53%E -3.06%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.58%EV -10.03%E -6.15%K -15.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-06 17:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 21.61%EV -13.60%E -3.36%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 55.05%EV -12.24%E -7.70%K -20.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.34%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-13 17:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.66%E -3.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.92%E -5.41%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-12 15:15
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.66%E -3.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.92%E -5.41%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-12 15:20
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.66%E -3.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.92%E -5.41%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-12 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.66%E -3.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.92%E -5.41%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -10.82%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-12 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.61%EV -14.66%E -3.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 54.71%EV -12.79%E -8.09%K -22.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.68%EV -14.34%E -3.93%K -5.41%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-13 17:14
PMU (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 20.87%EV -14.66%E -3.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 54.93%EV -16.10%E -10.59%K -30.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.20%EV -19.04%E -5.52%K -7.77%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-13 17:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95%EV -20.00%E -5.33%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 53.79%EV -11.68%E -7.30%K -19.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.26%EV -13.17%E -3.56%K -4.88%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-11 21:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%0.4%2026-03-13 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-03-13 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-03-13 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-03-13 17:25
Smarkets4.80I 20.83%NM 20.48%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.54%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%1.7%2026-03-13 17:25
Kalshi4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-03-13 17:10