L’École des cotes

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Hertha Berlin

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-22 12:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prévision 40.39%2.48cote équitable
EV -3.48%
Avantage -1.46%
Kelly -2.50%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.39

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.40%40.37%40.46%41.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.052.292.302.3948.78%43.65%43.48%41.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Hertha Berlin (Visiteur)

Prévision 33.43%2.99cote équitable
EV -1.39%
Avantage -0.470%
Kelly -0.711%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.00%33.44%33.40%34.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.552.742.752.9539.22%36.55%36.36%33.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.19%3.82cote équitable
EV -1.80%
Avantage -0.480%
Kelly -0.654%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.51%26.20%26.14%27.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.503.503.7532.26%28.57%28.57%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.39I 41.84%NM 39.75%EV -3.48%E -1.46%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -4.06%E -1.42%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 12:15
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -3.88%E -1.63%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 13:45
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -3.88%E -1.63%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 13:44
Pinnacle2.37I 42.19%NM 40.88%EV -4.29%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.29%EV -2.72%E -0.936%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -1.80%E -0.480%K -0.654%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 12:25
LowVig.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.69%EV -4.29%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.25%EV -3.06%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 08:45
BetOnline.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.69%EV -4.29%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.25%EV -3.06%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 08:44
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 11:24
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 11:34
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 11:40
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:44
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:44
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Codere (IT)2.34I 42.74%NM 40.32%EV -5.50%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.58%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 10:59
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -5.90%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-16 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -5.90%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-16 13:44
LeoVegas2.32I 43.10%NM 39.40%EV -6.31%E -2.72%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.49%EV -11.42%E -4.31%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-16 13:45
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -1.39%E -0.470%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 12:09
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 12:24
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 11:19
Suprabets2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.24%EV -6.07%E -2.16%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.16%EV -6.51%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 11:19
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 10:59
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 11:54
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 12:24
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 11:24
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 10:59
NordicBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -7.07%E -2.54%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 10:59
Betsson2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -7.07%E -2.54%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 10:59
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 12:20
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 12:19
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 11:30
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 10:29
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:24
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:25
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:25
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:24
Marathon Bet2.29I 43.67%NM 40.74%EV -7.52%E -3.28%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -6.07%E -2.16%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.25%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 12:04
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 10:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -12.08%E -4.59%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 11:29
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -12.08%E -4.59%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 11:30
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -12.42%E -4.74%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 11:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -12.42%E -4.74%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 11:29
LiveScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-16 13:45
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-16 13:45
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -11.15%E -5.07%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 12:24
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -11.15%E -5.07%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.88%EV -9.08%E -3.34%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.46%EV -11.49%E -3.40%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 12:04
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -11.15%E -5.07%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-22 11:39
NetBet (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 40.13%EV -12.36%E -5.70%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.39%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-22 11:25
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -13.17%E -6.13%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 10:59
Parions Sport (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.59%EV -15.19%E -7.23%K -13.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.34%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-22 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.24%EV -15.19%E -7.23%K -13.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.50%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.26%EV -18.82%E -6.07%K -8.96%G +0.000%18.3%2026-03-22 12:24
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 40.56%EV -17.21%E -8.40%K -16.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.61%EV -14.76%E -5.79%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.82%EV -18.82%E -6.07%K -8.96%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-22 12:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-03-22 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-03-22 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-03-22 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-03-22 11:50
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.78%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%1.3%2026-03-22 12:15
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.1%2026-03-22 08:19