La escuela de los momios

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Hertha Berlin

Inicio: 2026-03-22 12:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Predicción 40.39%2.48momio equitativo
EV -3.48%
Ventaja -1.46%
Kelly -2.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.40%40.37%40.46%41.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.292.302.3948.78%43.65%43.48%41.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Hertha Berlin (Visitante)

Predicción 33.43%2.99momio equitativo
EV -1.39%
Ventaja -0.470%
Kelly -0.711%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.00%33.44%33.40%34.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.742.752.9539.22%36.55%36.36%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.19%3.82momio equitativo
EV -1.80%
Ventaja -0.480%
Kelly -0.654%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.51%26.20%26.14%27.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.503.503.7532.26%28.57%28.57%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.39I 41.84%NM 39.75%EV -3.48%E -1.46%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -4.06%E -1.42%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 12:15
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -3.88%E -1.63%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 13:45
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -3.88%E -1.63%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 13:44
Pinnacle2.37I 42.19%NM 40.88%EV -4.29%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.29%EV -2.72%E -0.936%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%EV -1.80%E -0.480%K -0.654%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 12:25
LowVig.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.69%EV -4.29%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.25%EV -3.06%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 08:45
BetOnline.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.69%EV -4.29%E -1.81%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.25%EV -3.06%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 08:44
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 11:24
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 11:34
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 11:40
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:44
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:44
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 39.49%EV -5.09%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 13:45
Codere (IT)2.34I 42.74%NM 40.32%EV -5.50%E -2.35%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.58%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 10:59
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -5.90%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-16 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -5.90%E -2.53%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-16 13:44
LeoVegas2.32I 43.10%NM 39.40%EV -6.31%E -2.72%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.49%EV -11.42%E -4.31%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-16 13:45
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -1.39%E -0.470%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 12:09
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 12:24
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 11:19
Suprabets2.30I 43.48%NM 40.60%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.24%EV -6.07%E -2.16%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.16%EV -6.51%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 11:19
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 10:59
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.73%E -1.66%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 11:54
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 12:24
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 11:24
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.40%E -2.29%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 10:59
NordicBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -7.07%E -2.54%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 10:59
Betsson2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.30%EV -7.07%E -2.54%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 10:59
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 12:20
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 12:19
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 11:30
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 10:29
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:24
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:25
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:25
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.11%E -3.09%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:24
Marathon Bet2.29I 43.67%NM 40.74%EV -7.52%E -3.28%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -6.07%E -2.16%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.25%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 12:04
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 10:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -12.08%E -4.59%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 11:29
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -12.08%E -4.59%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 11:30
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -12.42%E -4.74%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 11:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -12.42%E -4.74%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 11:29
LiveScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-16 13:45
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.13%E -4.06%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-16 13:45
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -11.15%E -5.07%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.07%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-22 12:24
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -11.15%E -5.07%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.88%EV -9.08%E -3.34%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.46%EV -11.49%E -3.40%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 12:04
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -11.15%E -5.07%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-22 11:39
NetBet (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 40.13%EV -12.36%E -5.70%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.39%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-22 11:25
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -13.17%E -6.13%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.62%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 10:59
Parions Sport (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.59%EV -15.19%E -7.23%K -13.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.34%EV -9.74%E -3.61%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-22 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.24%EV -15.19%E -7.23%K -13.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.50%EV -13.09%E -5.03%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.26%EV -18.82%E -6.07%K -8.96%G +0.000%18.3%2026-03-22 12:24
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 40.56%EV -17.21%E -8.40%K -16.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.61%EV -14.76%E -5.79%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.82%EV -18.82%E -6.07%K -8.96%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-22 12:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-03-22 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-03-22 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-03-22 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.58%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-03-22 11:50
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.78%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%1.3%2026-03-22 12:15
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.1%2026-03-22 08:19