La escuela de los momios

Elversberg v Karlsruher SC

Inicio: 2026-04-17 16:30 UTC

Final: Elversberg 3–0 Karlsruher SC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Elversberg (Local)

Predicción 64.81%1.54momio equitativo
EV -2.78%
Ventaja -1.86%
Kelly -5.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.72%64.87%64.86%67.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.321.421.431.5075.76%70.19%69.93%66.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Karlsruher SC (Visitante)

Predicción 16.11%6.21momio equitativo
EV +4.71%
Ventaja +0.725%
Kelly +0.857%
Crecimiento +0.040%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.13%16.13%16.10%18.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.745.756.5020.41%17.41%17.39%15.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 19.08%5.24momio equitativo
EV +0.357%
Ventaja +0.068%
Kelly +0.084%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.57%19.00%19.04%21.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.774.755.2625.00%20.96%21.05%19.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.40%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV +4.71%E +0.725%K +0.857%G +0.040%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 16:25
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -11.86%E -8.72%K -32.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV +4.71%E +0.725%K +0.857%G +0.040%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 16:19
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.57%EV -7.97%E -5.61%K -18.97%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.25%EV -0.118%E -0.019%K -0.023%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.18%EV -0.788%E -0.151%K -0.188%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 16:24
Svenska Spel1.44I 69.44%NM 64.97%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.34%EV -1.73%E -0.284%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 15:59
ATG (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.97%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.34%EV -1.73%E -0.284%K -0.339%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 15:59
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 16:25
Bovada1.43I 69.93%NM 65.60%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-17 16:15
Suprabets1.42I 70.42%NM 66.00%EV -7.97%E -5.61%K -18.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV -2.70%E -0.529%K -0.657%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 16:16
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 16:23
Unibet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.67%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 16:00
Unibet (NL)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 16:00
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 15:59
Unibet (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 15:59
Casumo1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 15:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 15:59
TABtouch1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 16:00
Grosvenor1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 15:59
betPARX1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 15:59
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -7.97%E -5.61%K -18.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 16:24
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -9.26%E -6.62%K -23.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 14:00
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -9.26%E -6.62%K -23.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 16:15
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -7.97%E -5.61%K -18.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 16:25
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 67.20%EV -11.86%E -8.72%K -32.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -3.34%E -0.557%K -0.668%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -0.788%E -0.151%K -0.188%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 15:43
Pinnacle1.47I 68.03%NM 65.56%EV -4.73%E -3.22%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.98I 16.72%NM 16.12%EV -3.66%E -0.612%K -0.735%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.32%EV +0.357%E +0.068%K +0.084%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-17 16:24
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.81%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.95%EV -5.76%E -0.984%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.24%EV -7.47%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 16:24
Codere (IT)1.46I 68.49%NM 64.78%EV -5.38%E -3.68%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -6.56%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-17 16:24
LeoVegas1.43I 69.93%NM 64.21%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -6.56%E -1.13%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 16:00
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -4.08%E -2.76%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -7.37%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 16:24
DraftKings1.47I 68.03%NM 64.53%EV -4.73%E -3.22%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -7.37%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-17 16:24
theScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 64.53%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.05%EV -7.37%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 16:20
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 64.69%EV -7.97%E -5.61%K -18.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV -7.37%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 16:24
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 64.66%EV -10.56%E -7.65%K -27.79%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.52%EV -7.37%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.83%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-17 16:00
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 64.66%EV -10.56%E -7.65%K -27.79%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.52%EV -7.37%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.83%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-17 16:00
PMU (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 64.44%EV -11.86%E -8.72%K -32.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.65%EV -9.78%E -1.75%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.92%EV -16.05%E -3.65%K -4.72%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-17 16:00
NetBet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 65.94%EV -14.45%E -10.95%K -45.16%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.54%EV -9.78%E -1.75%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.52%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-17 16:15
BetOnline.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -4.08%E -2.76%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-17 16:24
LowVig.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -4.08%E -2.76%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-17 16:24
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 63.74%EV -6.02%E -4.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-17 16:23
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 64.15%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.05%EV -7.47%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-17 16:25
NordicBet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.15%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.05%EV -7.47%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-17 16:24
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 16:19
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 16:19
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 16:19
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 16:20
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -9.26%E -6.62%K -23.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -12.24%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-17 15:44
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -11.86%E -8.72%K -32.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-17 14:43
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.00%EV -11.86%E -8.72%K -32.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.58%EV -11.40%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.42%EV -23.68%E -5.92%K -7.89%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-17 14:00
Unibet (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 64.39%EV -9.91%E -7.13%K -25.42%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.57%EV -13.01%E -2.41%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.04%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-17 16:24
Winamax (DE)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.28%EV -7.32%E -5.12%K -17.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -14.62%E -2.76%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -4.60%E -0.921%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 16:24
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.13%EV -2.78%E -1.86%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.00%EV -15.26%E -2.90%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 18.86%EV -4.22%E -0.841%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 16:24
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -15.42%E -2.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 16:25
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -15.42%E -2.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 16:24
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -15.42%E -2.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -6.67%E -4.63%K -15.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -15.42%E -2.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 16:24
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.79%EV -9.26%E -6.62%K -23.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.01%EV -15.42%E -2.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.20%EV -11.28%E -2.43%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-17 16:23
Winamax (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 63.31%EV -9.91%E -7.13%K -25.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.96%EV -21.06%E -4.30%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.72%EV -10.33%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-17 16:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.44%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46%0.3%2026-04-17 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.44%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46%0.3%2026-04-17 16:24
Matchbook1.50I 66.67%NM 66.44%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.10%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46%0.3%2026-04-17 16:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.13%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-04-17 16:24
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 66.05%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.38%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.57%1.6%2026-04-17 16:24
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 66.99%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.47%3.0%2026-04-17 16:20