Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dynamo Dresden v SV Darmstadt 98

Inicio: 2026-02-27 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Predicción 38.39%2.60momio equitativo
EV -0.186%
Ventaja -0.071%
Kelly -0.116%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.80%38.10%38.43%39.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.462.452.6045.45%40.60%40.82%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante)

Predicción 34.17%2.93momio equitativo
EV -2.61%
Ventaja -0.915%
Kelly -1.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.71%34.42%34.20%37.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.632.652.8541.67%37.95%37.74%35.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.44%3.64momio equitativo
EV -2.87%
Ventaja -0.811%
Kelly -1.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.25%27.48%27.37%28.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.383.403.5432.26%29.61%29.41%28.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dynamo Dresden (Local): 38.39%; SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante): 34.17%; Empate: 27.44%. Para Dynamo Dresden (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.605. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.600, con un valor esperado de -0.186%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -12.86%E -5.04%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-27 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -12.86%E -5.04%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-27 17:04
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 17:04
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 17:04
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 17:04
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 17:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 17:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 17:05
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -0.186%E -0.071%K -0.116%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 17:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.72%EV -1.72%E -0.672%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.88%EV -2.61%E -0.915%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-27 16:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.72%EV -1.72%E -0.672%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.88%EV -2.61%E -0.915%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-27 16:49
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -2.11%E -0.826%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-27 16:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -2.11%E -0.826%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -11.15%E -4.29%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-27 16:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -2.11%E -0.826%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -11.15%E -4.29%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-27 16:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -2.11%E -0.826%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 17:05
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -2.11%E -0.826%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 17:04
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.99%EV -2.11%E -0.826%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -15.25%E -6.15%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 17:04
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.37%EV -2.49%E -0.980%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.82%EV -9.44%E -3.56%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.81%EV -2.87%E -0.811%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-27 17:24
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.58%EV -3.64%E -1.45%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.98%EV -2.61%E -0.915%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.44%EV -3.15%E -0.891%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-27 17:15
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.02%E -1.61%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -6.03%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.91%EV -4.79%E -1.93%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.11%EV -17.99%E -7.49%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.99%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 17:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.91%EV -4.79%E -1.93%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.11%EV -17.99%E -7.49%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.99%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 17:04
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.68%EV -5.94%E -2.43%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -4.32%E -1.54%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-27 16:50
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.94%E -2.43%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -6.03%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -3.97%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 17:13
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.94%E -2.43%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.32%E -1.54%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 17:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -5.94%E -2.43%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.03%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -5.94%E -2.43%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -6.03%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -5.34%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 17:09
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.94%E -2.43%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.03%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-27 16:43
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.94%E -2.43%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 17:22
Suprabets🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -6.33%E -2.59%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.25%EV -6.71%E -2.46%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.42%EV -6.44%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-27 16:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.38%EV -6.71%E -2.76%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.03%EV -6.37%E -2.32%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.59%EV -7.26%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 17:24
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.03%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 17:23
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.09%EV -7.05%E -2.59%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 17:10
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.09%EV -7.05%E -2.59%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 17:09
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 16:34
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 17:15
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 16:39
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -6.71%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 17:09
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 16:45
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 16:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -7.73%E -2.86%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-27 16:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.20%E -3.81%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-27 16:40
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -7.86%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -14.57%E -5.83%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -12.20%E -3.81%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-27 16:39
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.03%EV -8.63%E -3.63%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.54%EV -10.47%E -4.00%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-27 17:15
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -8.63%E -3.63%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -11.15%E -4.29%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -10.83%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-27 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -9.78%E -4.16%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -9.44%E -3.56%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -3.97%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-27 17:09
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.99%EV -11.70%E -5.09%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -9.44%E -3.56%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-27 17:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.70%E -5.09%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -10.13%E -3.85%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-27 17:08
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.00%EV -13.62%E -6.05%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.41%EV -12.86%E -5.04%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.0%2026-02-27 17:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.00%EV -14.77%E -6.65%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.95%EV -12.86%E -5.04%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.05%EV -12.20%E -3.81%K -5.55%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-27 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.08%EV -15.54%E -7.06%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.90%EV -17.99%E -7.49%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.02%EV -14.94%E -4.82%K -7.12%G +0.000%19.4%2026-02-27 17:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.56I 39.06%NM 38.84%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.29%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-02-27 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.75%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-02-27 17:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.75%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-02-27 17:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.75%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-02-27 17:24
Smarkets2.54I 39.37%NM 38.93%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-02-27 17:24