La escuela de los momios

Dynamo Dresden v Holstein Kiel

Inicio: 2026-05-17 13:30 UTC

Final: Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Holstein Kiel

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Predicción 55.27%1.81momio equitativo
EV -3.82%
Ventaja -2.20%
Kelly -5.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.15%55.33%55.23%57.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.671.681.7463.69%59.82%59.52%57.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Holstein Kiel (Visitante)

Predicción 21.19%4.72momio equitativo
EV +3.83%
Ventaja +0.781%
Kelly +0.982%
Crecimiento +0.038%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.33%21.04%21.25%22.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.954.354.354.9025.32%23.01%22.99%20.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.54%4.25momio equitativo
EV -1.15%
Ventaja -0.274%
Kelly -0.360%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.49%23.63%23.52%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.913.954.2029.41%25.60%25.32%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.04%EV -7.69%E -4.61%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.44%EV +3.83%E +0.781%K +0.982%G +0.038%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.52%EV -4.68%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 10:40
LowVig.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 56.38%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV +3.83%E +0.781%K +0.982%G +0.038%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -8.21%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 10:39
BetOnline.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 56.38%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV +3.83%E +0.781%K +0.982%G +0.038%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -8.21%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 10:39
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -6.59%E -3.90%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV +0.650%E +0.137%K +0.173%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 55.12%EV -3.82%E -2.20%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.54%EV -1.04%E -0.224%K -0.285%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.34%EV -7.27%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -7.69%E -4.61%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -2.53%E -0.550%K -0.702%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -3.50%E -0.855%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 08:10
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.48%E -3.20%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -4.65%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 10:40
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.16%EV -5.48%E -3.20%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.65%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Suprabets1.70I 58.82%NM 55.00%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -4.65%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.22%EV -9.15%E -2.37%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 10:35
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.65%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:06
FanDuel1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.69%E -4.61%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.65%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 10:38
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.06%EV -8.24%E -4.97%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -4.65%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 10:40
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.69%E -4.61%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -4.65%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 22:40
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.69%E -4.61%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -4.65%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 22:40
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -5.48%E -3.20%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.77%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.77%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 13:35
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -6.77%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -3.50%E -0.855%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-12 11:14
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -6.77%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -3.50%E -0.855%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-12 11:14
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.77%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.56%EV -5.48%E -3.20%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -6.77%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 10:40
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.17%EV -4.37%E -2.53%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.49%EV -7.61%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 11:14
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 11:15
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 11:14
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 11:15
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 11:14
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 11:14
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 55.36%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 11:14
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -7.83%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.16%EV -6.59%E -3.90%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -8.25%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-15 11:34
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -8.25%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 06:30
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.25%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 10:40
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.25%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 10:39
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -10.45%E -6.45%K -16.86%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -8.25%E -1.91%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 10:39
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.55%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -8.88%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -1.15%E -0.274%K -0.360%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:39
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 55.37%EV -7.69%E -4.61%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -8.88%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 11:14
LeoVegas (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.37%EV -7.69%E -4.61%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -8.88%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-12 11:14
LeoVegas1.66I 60.24%NM 55.52%EV -8.24%E -4.97%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -8.88%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 11:14
Betclic (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.75%EV -9.90%E -6.07%K -15.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -8.88%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.12%EV -7.51%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 10:40
PointsBet (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -6.59%E -3.90%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.94%E -2.34%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 11:00
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 53.67%EV -4.93%E -2.86%K -6.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -9.94%E -2.34%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 08:00
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.03%E -3.55%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -11.00%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -7.14%E -4.25%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV -11.00%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -3.50%E -0.855%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 11:00
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -7.69%E -4.61%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -11.00%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 11:00
Virgin Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.51%EV -11.01%E -6.84%K -18.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -11.00%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.21%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-12 11:15
LiveScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.51%EV -11.01%E -6.84%K -18.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -11.00%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.21%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-12 11:14
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -10.45%E -6.45%K -16.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.00%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-17 10:40
PMU (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 55.68%EV -13.22%E -8.42%K -23.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.32%EV -13.12%E -3.20%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.00%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-12 11:15
NetBet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 54.82%EV -12.67%E -8.02%K -21.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.12%EV -13.12%E -3.20%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.06%EV -15.27%E -4.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%15.5%2026-05-17 08:10
Unibet (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 54.72%EV -11.56%E -7.23%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.62%EV -14.18%E -3.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.66%EV -12.92%E -3.49%K -4.78%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 53.98%EV -8.80%E -5.33%K -13.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -15.24%E -3.81%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 53.98%EV -8.80%E -5.33%K -13.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -15.24%E -3.81%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 53.98%EV -8.80%E -5.33%K -13.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -15.24%E -3.81%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 53.98%EV -8.80%E -5.33%K -13.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -15.24%E -3.81%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-17 10:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 53.15%EV -10.45%E -6.45%K -16.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -15.24%E -3.81%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.32%EV -19.98%E -5.88%K -8.32%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-17 10:39
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.45%EV -10.45%E -6.45%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.33%EV -16.30%E -4.13%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.21%EV -10.56%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-05-17 08:06
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-05-17 08:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%0.9%2026-05-17 08:10
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%1.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%2.1%2026-05-17 04:05
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.04%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.75%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22%2.6%2026-05-17 10:40