La escuela de los momios

Arminia Bielefeld v SC Paderborn

Inicio: 2026-03-14 12:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Arminia Bielefeld (Local)

Predicción 34.36%2.91momio equitativo
EV -0.367%
Ventaja -0.127%
Kelly -0.193%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.76%34.26%34.30%35.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.712.702.9041.67%36.86%37.04%34.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Paderborn (Visitante)

Predicción 38.51%2.60momio equitativo
EV -1.02%
Ventaja -0.399%
Kelly -0.653%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.22%38.52%38.53%40.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.362.402.5746.51%42.30%41.67%38.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.13%3.69momio equitativo
EV -2.33%
Ventaja -0.646%
Kelly -0.894%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.81%27.22%27.17%29.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.413.403.6033.33%29.30%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag2.90I 34.48%NM 33.26%EV -0.367%E -0.127%K -0.193%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.68%EV -1.41%E -0.551%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.06%EV -9.92%E -2.99%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 04:45
BetOnline.ag2.90I 34.48%NM 33.26%EV -0.367%E -0.127%K -0.193%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.68%EV -1.41%E -0.551%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.06%EV -9.92%E -2.99%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 04:44
Svenska Spel2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 06:05
ATG (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 06:05
Unibet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.95%EV -12.19%E -5.35%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 06:05
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.95%EV -12.19%E -5.35%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 06:00
Casumo2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.95%EV -12.19%E -5.35%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 06:00
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.95%EV -12.19%E -5.35%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 06:05
Unibet (NL)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.95%EV -12.19%E -5.35%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 06:05
Unibet (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.95%EV -12.19%E -5.35%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 06:05
betPARX2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -2.08%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.95%EV -12.19%E -5.35%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 06:05
Pinnacle2.82I 35.46%NM 34.34%EV -3.12%E -1.10%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.68%EV -1.02%E -0.399%K -0.653%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.99%EV -6.12%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 05:49
Tipico (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 06:15
BetRivers2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 06:00
LeoVegas2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -3.80%E -1.36%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 06:04
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -2.33%E -0.646%K -0.894%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 04:50
Codere (IT)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 22:04
DraftKings2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 22:00
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.39%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 22:00
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 04:44
Everygame2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 04:10
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 04:09
Suprabets2.74I 36.50%NM 34.10%EV -5.86%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.83%EV -4.88%E -1.97%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.06%EV -9.65%E -2.90%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 04:10
Marathon Bet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.27%EV -6.55%E -2.41%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.90%EV -5.26%E -2.14%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 06:09
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -2.33%E -0.646%K -0.894%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 21:20
Bovada2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 06:07
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -2.33%E -0.646%K -0.894%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 04:48
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 04:48
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-13 02:35
theScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-13 22:05
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 04:44
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 04:44
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 04:54
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 04:55
Virgin Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.84%EV -16.04%E -7.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-14 06:04
LiveScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -7.24%E -2.68%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.84%EV -16.04%E -7.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-14 06:05
1xBet2.69I 37.17%NM 34.67%EV -7.58%E -2.82%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.06%EV -5.65%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -7.21%E -2.11%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-13 05:20
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.42%EV -7.93%E -2.96%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-13 22:04
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.42%EV -7.93%E -2.96%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-13 22:04
Betclic (FR)2.68I 37.31%NM 33.86%EV -7.93%E -2.96%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 00:08
Betr (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -8.96%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 05:40
PointsBet (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -8.96%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 05:39
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -8.96%E -3.38%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -9.50%E -4.04%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-13 22:04
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.99%E -3.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -2.33%E -0.646%K -0.894%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 08:59
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -9.99%E -3.81%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-14 04:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 21:20
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 21:19
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 21:20
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 21:20
Parions Sport (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.97%EV -10.67%E -4.11%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.26%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-14 00:15
NetBet (FR)2.52I 39.68%NM 34.39%EV -13.42%E -5.33%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.52%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -13.18%E -4.12%K -5.99%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-13 22:30
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -14.11%E -5.64%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-14 04:49
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.86%EV -14.11%E -5.64%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.73%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.41%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-13 22:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -14.11%E -5.64%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -18.60%E -6.20%K -9.30%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-11 18:30
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.03%EV -17.55%E -7.31%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.10%EV -17.20%E -8.00%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.87%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%18.9%2026-03-14 04:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58%0.7%2026-03-14 04:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58%0.7%2026-03-14 04:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58%0.7%2026-03-14 04:45
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58%0.7%2026-03-14 04:10
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.71%1.1%2026-03-14 05:50
Smarkets2.88I 34.72%NM 34.29%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-03-14 05:03