Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Magdeburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 39.77%2.51fair odd
EV -0.587%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.24%39.62%39.70%40.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.352.342.5047.62%42.61%42.74%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 34.42%2.91fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.51%34.61%34.46%37.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.612.622.8042.02%38.31%38.17%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.81%3.87fair odd
EV -0.620%
Edge -0.161%
Kelly -0.217%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.38%25.77%25.84%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.563.603.8532.26%28.11%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 39.77%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit): 34.42%; Draw: 25.81%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -0.587%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.52%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.78%EV -12.22%E -4.79%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.52%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.78%EV -12.22%E -4.79%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 11:50
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 11:50
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 11:50
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 11:50
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 11:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 11:50
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -0.587%E -0.235%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 11:50
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.30%EV -1.38%E -0.557%K -0.934%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.30%EV -1.38%E -0.557%K -0.934%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 11:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -2.58%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -10.50%E -4.04%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 22:05
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.47%EV -2.58%E -1.05%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.02%EV -14.63%E -5.90%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-19 11:50
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.29%EV -3.37%E -1.39%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.34%EV -4.31%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.37%EV -6.56%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 11:54
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.56%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.38%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.81%EV -0.620%E -0.161%K -0.217%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-19 12:50
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -4.56%E -1.90%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.78%E -3.31%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 12:25
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.86%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.50%EV -5.34%E -1.94%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 16:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.34%E -1.94%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 11:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.29%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.98%EV -17.39%E -7.25%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.73%EV -10.94%E -3.17%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-19 11:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.29%EV -5.36%E -2.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.98%EV -17.39%E -7.25%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.73%EV -10.94%E -3.17%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-19 11:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.03%EV -6.15%E -2.61%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -3.62%E -1.29%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 23:34
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 11:36
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 11:49
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -5.34%E -1.94%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 18:39
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 11:35
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.53%EV -8.78%E -3.31%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -10.94%E -3.17%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-24 03:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.47%EV -6.55%E -2.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.00%EV -18.08%E -7.60%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.53%EV -10.94%E -3.17%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-19 11:50
Suprabets🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.20%EV -6.95%E -2.97%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.36%EV -8.09%E -3.03%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.44%EV -10.43%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-24 03:09
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -7.74%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 13:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.22%EV -7.74%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 13:25
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.75%EV -7.74%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.90%EV -6.37%E -2.34%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 11:50
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.75%EV -7.74%E -3.34%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.90%EV -6.37%E -2.34%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 11:50
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -8.78%E -3.31%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -1.91%E -0.503%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 01:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-20 09:55
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -1.91%E -0.503%K -0.682%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 01:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.17%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -8.78%E -3.31%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 04:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.17%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -8.78%E -3.31%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 05:55
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-21 14:55
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -10.50%E -4.04%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -3.20%E -0.854%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 11:49
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 18:44
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:30
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.54%E -3.71%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.06%E -2.62%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 13:30
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.54%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 01:24
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.50%E -4.04%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.50%E -4.04%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.50%E -4.04%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:10
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -10.53%E -4.68%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -10.50%E -4.04%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:08
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.95%EV -12.52%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -10.50%E -4.04%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -13.53%E -4.04%K -5.76%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-20 11:35
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -12.52%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-23 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.61%EV -12.52%E -5.69%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.98%EV -13.95%E -5.58%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.40%EV -19.98%E -6.44%K -9.51%G +0.000%17.7%2026-04-23 11:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.28%EV -13.31%E -6.11%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.21%EV -13.53%E -4.04%K -5.76%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-19 13:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.13%EV -13.71%E -6.32%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.88%EV -11.54%E -4.49%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.99%EV -13.53%E -4.04%K -5.76%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-23 06:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.95%EV -16.49%E -7.85%K -14.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.24%EV -15.67%E -6.39%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.81%EV -16.11%E -4.96%K -7.16%G +0.000%19.2%2026-04-19 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.48%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.73%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-04-23 17:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.48%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.73%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.48%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.73%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-04-23 15:45
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 39.94%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.28%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.78%3.5%2026-04-23 15:44
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.59%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.16%7.1%2026-04-24 00:30