Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Magdeburg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 11:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Magdeburg (Local)

Prediction 44.66%2.24fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.48%44.64%44.64%45.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.062.062.1652.08%48.59%48.43%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit)

Prediction 30.08%3.32fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.24%30.12%30.12%31.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.043.003.2034.72%32.90%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.26%3.96fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.384%
Kelly -0.516%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.75%25.24%25.24%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.633.9029.41%27.47%27.51%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Magdeburg (Local): 44.66%; 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit): 30.08%; Draw: 25.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.12%EV -3.53%E -1.64%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.12%EV -3.53%E -1.64%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 16:45
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -4.87%E -2.29%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.76%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.53%EV -5.79%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 12:00
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.75%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.60%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -2.76%E -0.717%K -0.968%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-07 20:09
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.15%EV -5.32%E -2.51%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.00%EV -6.14%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.85%EV -8.57%E -2.37%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 08:45
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 00:30
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 07:44
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 11:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.67%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -1.50%E -0.384%K -0.516%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 11:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 11:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.38%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -6.14%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -8.57%E -2.37%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:30
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 10:00
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 10:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 10:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.21%E -2.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 10:00
Suprabets🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.33%EV -6.66%E -3.19%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.25%EV -10.84%E -3.07%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 00:34
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 14:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 14:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 14:06
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 14:06
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 14:05
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 14:06
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 14:06
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%EV -8.25%E -2.70%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -1.50%E -0.384%K -0.516%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-07 20:09
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -7.11%E -3.42%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -7.81%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 04:50
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -1.50%E -0.384%K -0.516%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-07 20:08
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-07 20:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-07 20:10
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 20:20
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 15:09
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.55%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 15:09
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -8.25%E -2.70%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 14:54
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 20:05
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 20:05
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.69%EV -11.26%E -3.82%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 14:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 00:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 00:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 00:30
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -8.45%E -4.12%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 00:30
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -9.78%E -4.84%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 14:05
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -10.68%E -5.34%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-07 20:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -10.68%E -5.34%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -10.34%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 14:05
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -10.68%E -5.34%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -10.34%E -2.91%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.68%E -5.34%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -11.26%E -3.82%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 20:05
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.68%E -5.34%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 20:05
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -10.68%E -5.34%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -13.36%E -4.64%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -9.07%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.70%EV -11.57%E -5.84%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -11.26%E -3.82%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.29%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 14:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.70%EV -11.57%E -5.84%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -11.26%E -3.82%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.29%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 14:06
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.47%EV -11.57%E -5.84%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-06 20:03
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.83%EV -12.02%E -6.10%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -11.26%E -3.82%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.73%EV -12.46%E -6.36%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.72%EV -11.26%E -3.82%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.56%EV -13.37%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 20:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.52%EV -12.91%E -6.62%K -13.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.94%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -14.13%E -4.15%K -5.89%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-09 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.69%EV -14.25%E -7.42%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.24%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -11.60%E -3.31%K -4.64%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-09 06:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 44.73%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-09-09 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 44.79%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.49%3.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 44.79%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.49%3.4%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.02%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.39%3.8%2026-09-09 14:20
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 44.89%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%5.1%2026-09-09 17:35
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 44.07%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%13.5%2026-09-09 13:46