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TSG Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen

2026-10-25 14:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim (Local)

Prediction 34.47%2.90fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.617%
Kelly -0.951%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.45%34.61%34.39%36.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.672.702.8540.00%37.42%37.11%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 41.82%2.39fair odd
EV -0.059%
Edge -0.025%
Kelly -0.042%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.60%41.73%41.68%43.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3948.78%45.42%45.45%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.71%4.22fair odd
EV +1.97%
Edge +0.458%
Kelly +0.596%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.13%23.66%23.93%25.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.983.904.3027.40%25.15%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: TSG Hoffenheim (Local): 34.47%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 41.82%; Draw: 23.71%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.22. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.30, producing a positive expected value of +1.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.61%EV -5.21%E -1.89%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.26%EV -8.00%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV +1.97%E +0.458%K +0.596%G +0.012%5.1%2026-10-11 20:14
1xBet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%EV -4.86%E -1.76%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 41.18%EV -0.059%E -0.025%K -0.042%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.16%EV +0.782%E +0.184%K +0.241%G +0.002%1.6%2026-10-11 20:12
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.43%EV -5.21%E -1.89%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -8.00%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -0.404%E -0.096%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 20:15
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.43%EV -5.21%E -1.89%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -8.00%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -0.404%E -0.096%K -0.126%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 20:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -6.93%E -2.57%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -8.00%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.404%E -0.096%K -0.126%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 20:13
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -6.93%E -2.57%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -8.00%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.404%E -0.096%K -0.126%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 20:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -6.93%E -2.57%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -8.00%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -0.404%E -0.096%K -0.126%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 20:14
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.86%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.76%EV -5.91%E -2.63%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -0.404%E -0.096%K -0.126%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 20:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.68%EV -7.27%E -2.70%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.19%EV -2.57%E -1.10%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.13%EV -1.59%E -0.383%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-11 20:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.98%EV -6.93%E -2.57%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.98%EV -5.91%E -2.63%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -2.77%E -0.677%K -0.895%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 20:10
Pinnacle🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.70%EV -7.96%E -2.98%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.22%EV -0.895%E -0.378%K -0.654%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.07%EV -6.09%E -1.54%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 21:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.47%EV -5.21%E -1.89%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.22%EV -3.82%E -1.66%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -7.52%E -1.93%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 20:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.25%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -12.19%E -5.80%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -7.52%E -1.93%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 20:10
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.25%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -12.19%E -5.80%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -7.52%E -1.93%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 20:14
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.25%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -12.19%E -5.80%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -7.52%E -1.93%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 20:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.25%EV -9.69%E -3.70%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.74%EV -12.19%E -5.80%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -7.52%E -1.93%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 20:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.45%EV -1.76%E -0.617%K -0.951%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.45%EV -3.82%E -1.66%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -9.89%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 23:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -5.21%E -1.89%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -8.00%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.89%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-11 23:39
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -13.82%E -5.53%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -3.82%E -1.66%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.89%E -2.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-11 23:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -5.21%E -1.89%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.00%E -3.64%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -11.07%E -2.95%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 20:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.20%EV -12.10%E -4.75%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.54%EV -14.28%E -6.96%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -11.07%E -2.95%K -4.03%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-11 20:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 33.48%EV -7.96%E -2.98%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -12.19%E -5.80%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.96%EV -11.55%E -3.10%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-11 23:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.78%EV -12.10%E -4.75%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.25%EV -10.09%E -4.70%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -12.26%E -3.31%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 20:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.43%EV -13.82%E -5.53%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.99%EV -14.28%E -6.96%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.58%EV -13.45%E -3.68%K -5.07%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-11 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 35.59%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.1%2026-10-11 20:10
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 33.62%2.06I 48.54%NM 41.78%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%16.2%2026-10-11 23:39