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FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen

2026-10-10 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FSV Mainz 05 (Local)

Prediction 31.89%3.14fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.860%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.60%31.91%31.80%33.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.872.903.0837.74%34.82%34.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 43.15%2.32fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.80%43.18%43.17%44.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.152.2650.00%46.89%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.96%4.01fair odd
EV +0.086%
Edge +0.022%
Kelly +0.029%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%24.92%25.02%25.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.693.604.0128.57%27.11%27.78%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 (Local): 31.89%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 43.15%; Draw: 24.96%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.007. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.010, producing a positive expected value of +0.086%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.94%EV -1.79%E -0.581%K -0.860%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.53%EV -2.47%E -1.09%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.53%EV +0.086%E +0.022%K +0.029%G +0.000%1.7%2026-09-16 16:54
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -0.163%E -0.041%K -0.054%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-16 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -2.66%E -0.682%K -0.917%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-16 19:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -5.93%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -2.66%E -0.682%K -0.917%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-16 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.92%EV -4.98%E -1.67%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.24%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.84%EV -4.41%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-16 17:01
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.78%EV -4.34%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.14%EV -4.63%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -5.16%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-16 17:25
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.12%E -3.20%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.90%E -2.44%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-16 17:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -10.15%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 17:20
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -10.15%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 17:15
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -10.15%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 17:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -10.15%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 17:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.22%E -3.36%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -10.15%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 17:20
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -10.72%E -3.83%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -9.38%E -4.47%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.15%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-16 19:04
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.60%EV -13.91%E -5.15%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.94%EV -11.53%E -5.63%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.45%EV -10.15%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-16 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 31.60%EV -9.76%E -3.45%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.20%EV -10.67%E -5.16%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -11.39%E -3.21%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-16 17:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.49%EV -13.91%E -5.15%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.79%EV -11.53%E -5.63%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -11.39%E -3.21%K -4.47%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-16 17:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.12%EV -15.50%E -5.85%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.80%EV -9.38%E -4.47%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.08%EV -12.64%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-16 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.44%EV -15.50%E -5.85%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.99%EV -13.69%E -6.85%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.57%EV -12.64%E -3.61%K -5.06%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-16 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 31.82%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.65%16.4%2026-09-16 17:20