Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Schalke 04 v Elversberg

2026-09-20 15:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Schalke 04 (Local)

Prediction 53.16%1.88fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.25%53.11%53.18%53.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.761.751.8360.61%56.86%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elversberg (Visit)

Prediction 22.10%4.53fair odd
EV +0.980%
Edge +0.214%
Kelly +0.274%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.54%22.20%22.06%25.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.454.154.204.5728.99%24.12%23.81%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.74%4.04fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.256%
Kelly -0.341%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.63%24.69%24.76%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.803.854.0028.57%26.33%25.97%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Schalke 04 (Local): 53.16%; Elversberg (Visit): 22.10%; Draw: 24.74%. For Elversberg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.57, producing a positive expected value of +0.980%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.82%EV -2.72%E -1.49%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.55%EV +0.980%E +0.214%K +0.274%G +0.003%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%EV -1.02%E -0.256%K -0.341%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-06 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -4.31%E -2.40%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -0.567%E -0.126%K -0.162%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.60%EV -2.51%E -0.636%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.39%EV -5.38%E -3.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -2.78%E -0.631%K -0.817%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -5.97%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 18:25
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.38%E -3.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.26%EV -6.09%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -4.73%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 18:00
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.38%E -3.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.26%EV -6.09%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -4.73%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 18:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -7.50%E -4.31%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -6.09%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -7.21%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 18:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -6.09%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.45%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 17:25
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -4.31%E -2.40%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 18:24
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -5.91%E -3.34%K -7.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 18:25
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 18:00
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.45%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 18:20
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -8.03%E -4.64%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.45%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 19:29
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.92%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.92%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 18:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.92%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 18:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.39%EV -9.63%E -5.66%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -7.20%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.00%EV -10.18%E -2.80%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -2.72%E -1.49%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -9.41%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -5.97%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 18:00
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.22%EV -5.38%E -3.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -9.41%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -1.02%E -0.256%K -0.341%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 17:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.62%EV -4.31%E -2.40%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -9.41%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.28%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -5.38%E -3.02%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -9.41%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 17:25
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.89%EV -9.10%E -5.32%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -9.41%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 17:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.74%EV -12.29%E -7.45%K -18.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -9.41%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.63%EV -10.92%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-06 18:25
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.31%E -2.40%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -11.62%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -1.02%E -0.256%K -0.341%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 17:25
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.97%E -3.98%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -11.62%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -3.50%E -0.897%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 17:30
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -8.03%E -4.64%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -11.62%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -5.97%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 17:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.49%EV -7.50%E -4.31%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -22.66%E -6.48%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.40%EV -10.92%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 19:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.25%EV -8.57%E -4.98%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.05%EV -23.77%E -6.89%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.70%EV -13.39%E -3.83%K -5.36%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-06 19:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 52.05%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.31%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.64%16.4%2026-09-06 18:25
Kalshi1.37I 72.99%NM 34.76%1.47I 68.03%NM 32.40%1.45I 68.97%NM 32.84%110.0%2026-09-06 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-06 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-06 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-06 18:50