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Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05

2026-10-30 19:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elversberg (Local)

Prediction 29.51%3.39fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.607%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.75%29.51%29.52%30.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.133.153.3435.09%31.95%31.75%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 45.52%2.20fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.23%45.54%45.51%46.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.042.052.1352.08%48.99%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.96%4.01fair odd
EV +1.59%
Edge +0.391%
Kelly +0.518%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%24.95%24.97%26.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.743.704.0728.99%26.72%27.03%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Elversberg (Local): 29.51%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 45.52%; Draw: 24.96%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.07, producing a positive expected value of +1.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 29.51%EV -1.42%E -0.425%K -0.607%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.27%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 24.22%EV +1.59%E +0.391%K +0.518%G +0.008%1.5%2026-10-18 20:39
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.44%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -0.156%E -0.039%K -0.052%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 19:39
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.44%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -0.156%E -0.039%K -0.052%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 19:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.49%EV -4.08%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.30%EV -5.77%E -2.79%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.20%EV -1.15%E -0.292%K -0.390%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 19:54
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -2.65%E -0.680%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 19:39
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -2.65%E -0.680%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 19:53
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -2.65%E -0.680%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 19:54
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -2.65%E -0.680%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 19:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -7.03%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -2.65%E -0.680%K -0.915%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 19:54
Neds🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -7.03%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -2.65%E -0.680%K -0.915%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 19:54
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -2.60%E -0.788%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.15%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 22:24
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -8.50%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.40%E -1.71%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 21:05
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -4.67%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.92%EV -3.49%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.60%EV -7.15%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 00:35
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.73%EV -3.49%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -7.64%E -2.07%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 00:26
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.50%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -7.64%E -2.07%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 20:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.50%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -7.64%E -2.07%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 20:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.50%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -7.64%E -2.07%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 20:10
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.64%E -2.07%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-19 00:29
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.46%E -3.82%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.64%E -2.07%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-19 00:30
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -4.08%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.62%EV -3.49%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -10.14%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-19 01:24
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.55%E -1.74%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.40%E -2.09%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -10.14%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-19 01:24
picklebet_au🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.50%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.14%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 00:25
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.50%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.14%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 00:25
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.50%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.14%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 00:24
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.50%E -2.74%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.14%E -2.82%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 00:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.34%EV -14.41%E -4.97%K -7.58%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.88%EV -10.77%E -5.50%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -11.39%E -3.21%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-19 00:24
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -9.98%E -3.27%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.50%EV -10.77%E -5.50%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.26%EV -11.89%E -3.37%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-19 00:23
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -14.41%E -4.97%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -8.95%E -4.48%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -12.64%E -3.61%K -5.05%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-19 00:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.21%EV -15.88%E -5.57%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.84%EV -12.59%E -6.56%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.95%EV -13.88%E -4.02%K -5.67%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-19 00:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 28.87%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.14%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.99%4.0%2026-10-19 00:25
Smarkets◎2.90I 34.48%NM 29.57%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%16.6%2026-10-19 00:24