The School of OddsElversberg v Bayer Leverkusen
Head to Head
Option 1: Elversberg (Local)
Odds
4.8020.83%Min
6.1016.39%Mean
6.2216.06%Median
6.8614.58%Max
Consensus probabilities
14.25%7.019Min
17.60%5.683Max
15.04%6.650Mean
15.07%6.637Median
15.00%6.667IQM
14.97%6.682Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 6.86 under the IQM model: 15.00%
EV +2.90%Edge +0.423%Kelly +0.495%Growth +0.014%
Option 2: Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)
Odds
1.3574.07%Min
1.4270.60%Mean
1.4270.42%Median
1.4768.03%Max
Consensus probabilities
62.40%1.603Min
67.60%1.479Max
66.21%1.510Mean
66.12%1.512Median
66.24%1.510IQM
66.28%1.509Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.47 under the IQM model: 66.24%
EV -2.63%Edge -1.79%Kelly -5.59%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
4.2023.81%Min
4.8720.54%Mean
4.8520.62%Median
5.2319.12%Max
Consensus probabilities
18.16%5.507Min
20.06%4.986Max
18.76%5.332Mean
18.81%5.316Median
18.76%5.331IQM
18.76%5.332Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 5.23 under the IQM model: 18.76%
EV -1.89%Edge -0.362%Kelly -0.447%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Elversberg (Local) ▼ | Bayer Leverkusen (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.86I 14.58% NM 14.33%EV +2.90% E +0.423% K +0.495% G +0.014% | 1.47I 68.03% NM 66.87%EV -2.63% E -1.79% K -5.59% G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12% NM 18.80%EV -1.89% E -0.362% K -0.447% G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-07-04 02:20 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.75I 14.81% NM 14.36%EV +1.25% E +0.185% K +0.218% G +0.003% | 1.45I 68.97% NM 66.83%EV -3.95% E -2.72% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42% NM 18.82%EV -3.39% E -0.659% K -0.817% G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-04 02:20 |
| betfred_uk | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.68%EV -2.50% E -0.384% K -0.454% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.25%EV -4.61% E -3.20% K -10.48% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 19.08%EV -6.21% E -1.24% K -1.55% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-03 14:35 |
| SportsBet | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.59%EV -2.50% E -0.384% K -0.454% G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.81%EV -5.94% E -4.18% K -14.14% G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61% NM 18.60%EV -4.33% E -0.849% K -1.06% G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-03 11:25 |
| Coral | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.56%EV -2.50% E -0.384% K -0.454% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.72%EV -4.61% E -3.20% K -10.48% G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.72%EV -9.96% E -2.07% K -2.62% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Betr (AU) | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.48%EV -2.50% E -0.384% K -0.454% G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.30%EV -5.94% E -4.18% K -14.14% G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.21%EV -8.08% E -1.65% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 14:30 |
| FanDuel | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.25%EV -2.50% E -0.384% K -0.454% G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99% NM 67.60%EV -9.25% E -6.75% K -25.00% G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61% NM 18.16%EV -4.33% E -0.849% K -1.06% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-03 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 6.40I 15.63% NM 14.72%EV -4.00% E -0.625% K -0.740% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.44%EV -4.61% E -3.20% K -10.48% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.84%EV -10.90% E -2.29% K -2.91% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| Neds | 6.40I 15.63% NM 14.72%EV -4.00% E -0.625% K -0.740% G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.44%EV -4.61% E -3.20% K -10.48% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.84%EV -10.90% E -2.29% K -2.91% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| Sky Bet | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -6.25% E -1.000% K -1.19% G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.26% E -5.19% K -18.16% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.21% E -1.24% K -1.55% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-03 11:25 |
| Codere (IT) | 6.20I 16.13% NM 15.42%EV -7.00% E -1.13% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49% NM 65.47%EV -3.29% E -2.25% K -7.15% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 19.12%EV -6.21% E -1.24% K -1.55% G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-03 20:25 |
| Tipico (DE) | 6.20I 16.13% NM 15.25%EV -7.00% E -1.13% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.57%EV -5.94% E -4.18% K -14.14% G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23% NM 18.18%EV -2.45% E -0.472% K -0.584% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Paddy Power | 6.00I 16.67% NM 14.98%EV -10.00% E -1.67% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53% NM 66.09%EV -9.91% E -7.29% K -27.53% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 18.92%EV -10.90% E -2.29% K -2.91% G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-03 15:10 |
| BoyleSports | 6.00I 16.67% NM 14.98%EV -10.00% E -1.67% K -2.00% G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53% NM 66.09%EV -9.91% E -7.29% K -27.53% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 18.92%EV -10.90% E -2.29% K -2.91% G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-05 11:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 5.75I 17.39% NM 16.05%EV -13.75% E -2.39% K -2.89% G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93% NM 64.53%EV -5.28% E -3.69% K -12.27% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.43%EV -10.90% E -2.29% K -2.91% G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-03 16:45 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.75I 17.39% NM 15.97%EV -13.75% E -2.39% K -2.89% G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42% NM 64.69%EV -5.94% E -4.18% K -14.14% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.34%EV -10.90% E -2.29% K -2.91% G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-03 16:40 |
| LeoVegas | 5.70I 17.54% NM 16.12%EV -14.50% E -2.54% K -3.08% G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42% NM 64.73%EV -5.94% E -4.18% K -14.14% G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.15%EV -9.96% E -2.07% K -2.62% G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-03 16:20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.50I 18.18% NM 16.68%EV -17.50% E -3.18% K -3.89% G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42% NM 64.60%EV -5.94% E -4.18% K -14.14% G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41% NM 18.72%EV -8.08% E -1.65% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-03 16:45 |
| Betclic (FR) | 5.40I 18.52% NM 16.25%EV -19.00% E -3.52% K -4.32% G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99% NM 64.04%EV -9.25% E -6.75% K -25.00% G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47% NM 19.72%EV -16.52% E -3.71% K -4.79% G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-03 17:34 |
| Unibet (FR) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 17.60%EV -25.00% E -5.00% K -6.25% G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43% NM 62.85%EV -7.26% E -5.19% K -18.16% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 19.55%EV -15.58% E -3.46% K -4.45% G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-07-03 21:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.80I 20.83% NM 17.55%EV -28.00% E -5.83% K -7.37% G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07% NM 62.40%EV -10.57% E -7.83% K -30.21% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 20.06%EV -21.21% E -5.05% K -6.63% G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-07-03 16:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Elversberg (Local) | Bayer Leverkusen (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 5.10I 19.61% | 1.36I 73.53% | 4.20I 23.81% | 16.9% | 2026-07-03 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.18I 84.75% | 1.44I 69.44% | 1.01I 99.01% | 153.2% | 2026-07-03 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.18I 84.75% | 1.44I 69.44% | 1.01I 99.01% | 153.2% | 2026-07-03 15:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.18I 84.75% | 1.18I 84.75% | 1.01I 99.01% | 168.5% | 2026-07-03 12:50 |