La escuela de los momios

Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen

2026-08-29 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Elversberg (Local)

Predicción 18.63%5.37momio equitativo
EV +7.11%
Ventaja +1.24%
Kelly +1.50%
Crecimiento +0.107%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.89%18.57%18.65%20.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.204.954.955.7523.81%20.19%20.20%17.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Bayer Leverkusen (Visitante)

Predicción 60.53%1.65momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -1.97%
Kelly -5.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.17%60.61%60.58%62.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.541.551.6069.93%64.88%64.52%62.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.84%4.80momio equitativo
EV -1.02%
Ventaja -0.215%
Kelly -0.272%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.94%20.82%20.77%21.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.154.474.504.7524.10%22.37%22.22%21.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet5.75I 17.39%NM 16.89%EV +7.11%E +1.24%K +1.50%G +0.107%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.66%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.45%EV -1.02%E -0.215%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-23 05:59
1xBet5.53I 18.08%NM 17.77%EV +3.02%E +0.545%K +0.666%G +0.020%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.41%EV -3.15%E -1.97%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.82%EV -1.64%E -0.348%K -0.442%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-11 04:29
betfred_uk5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV +2.46%E +0.447%K +0.546%G +0.013%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:00
Betr (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV +2.46%E +0.447%K +0.546%G +0.013%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -7.99%E -5.26%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-23 05:59
Marathon Bet5.45I 18.35%NM 17.79%EV +1.53%E +0.280%K +0.343%G +0.005%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.36%EV -4.36%E -2.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.85%EV -3.10%E -0.667%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-11 04:29
SportsBet5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -1.27%E -0.239%K -0.295%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.80%EV -6.78%E -4.40%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -2.06%E -0.439%K -0.557%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 11:04
FanDuel5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -1.27%E -0.239%K -0.295%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.46%EV -10.41%E -7.03%K -21.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -4.15%E -0.901%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-06 11:05
PointsBet (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -2.20%E -0.419%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-23 05:59
Coral5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -2.20%E -0.419%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-10 20:13
BetMGM5.25I 19.05%NM 18.06%EV -2.20%E -0.419%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -4.96%E -3.16%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-10 20:14
Caesars5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -2.20%E -0.419%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-11 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -2.20%E -0.419%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.70%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 20:15
Neds5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -2.20%E -0.419%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.70%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 20:15
Ladbrokes (UK)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -2.20%E -0.419%K -0.518%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.70%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 20:14
BetOnline.ag5.23I 19.12%NM 18.23%EV -2.57%E -0.492%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.13%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.64%EV -3.73%E -0.807%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-20 14:15
LowVig.ag5.23I 19.12%NM 18.23%EV -2.57%E -0.492%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.13%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.64%EV -3.73%E -0.807%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-20 14:15
Tipico (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.23%EV -3.13%E -0.602%K -0.746%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.16%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -4.15%E -0.901%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 20:09
Bovada5.10I 19.61%NM 18.64%EV -4.99%E -0.979%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.92%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.44%EV -3.10%E -0.667%K -0.850%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-13 12:14
Codere (IT)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.26%EV -4.36%E -2.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -4.15%E -0.901%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 07:10
TAB5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.98%EV -4.36%E -2.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-23 15:39
BetUS5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.11%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.94%EV -1.02%E -0.215%K -0.272%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 20:15
Pinnacle5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.74%EV -6.78%E -4.40%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.56%EV -5.19%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-06 13:40
Sky Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.75%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-06 11:04
Everygame5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.47%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 15:09
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-06 12:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-09 08:30
Bet Victor5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -9.77%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-25 09:04
betano_uk5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -6.86%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -9.77%E -2.26%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-25 09:04
NordicBet4.95I 20.20%NM 19.06%EV -7.79%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.73%EV -4.36%E -2.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.21%EV -7.27%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 19:45
Betsson4.95I 20.20%NM 19.06%EV -7.79%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.73%EV -4.36%E -2.76%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.21%EV -7.27%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 19:45
Suprabets4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -8.72%E -1.78%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.40%EV -7.99%E -5.26%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 15:08
PlayUp4.85I 20.62%NM 18.97%EV -9.65%E -1.99%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -6.17%E -3.98%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -11.44%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-25 19:45
LeoVegas4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -10.58%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.29%EV -7.38%E -4.83%K -13.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 09:30
BetRivers4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 01:59
Bally Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:05
LeoVegas (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:34
Grosvenor4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:35
Unibet (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:34
Casumo4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:34
Unibet (NL)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:35
Svenska Spel4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:35
TABtouch4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:40
ATG (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:39
Unibet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:45
betPARX4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 10:05
PMU (FR)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70%EV -5.57%E -3.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-16 17:31
Hard Rock Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.01%EV -6.78%E -4.40%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 07:04
Unibet (UK)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.59%EV -6.78%E -4.40%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.09%EV -9.35%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 07:05
Betway4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.64%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -6.23%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 23:50
BoyleSports4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -12.48%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-06 09:25
Winamax (DE)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.47%EV -7.99%E -5.26%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -4.15%E -0.901%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-25 07:05
DraftKings4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.79%EV -8.59%E -5.69%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.00%EV -10.40%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-06 12:44
NetBet (FR)4.70I 21.28%NM 18.59%EV -12.45%E -2.65%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.09%EV -13.44%E -9.40%K -31.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.32%EV -10.40%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-22 13:43
Winamax (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -14.31%E -3.11%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -9.20%E -6.13%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -8.31%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-13 20:10
Betclic (FR)4.55I 21.98%NM 19.26%EV -15.24%E -3.35%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 59.62%EV -11.02%E -7.49%K -23.44%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.12%EV -13.52%E -3.26%K -4.29%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-25 07:05
LiveScore Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -18.03%E -4.10%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.25%EV -6.78%E -4.40%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -12.48%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-07 04:35
Virgin Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 20.39%EV -18.03%E -4.10%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.25%EV -6.78%E -4.40%K -12.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -12.48%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-07 04:35
Unibet (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -21.76%E -5.18%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 58.17%EV -8.59%E -5.69%K -16.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -12.48%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-25 07:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.47%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%3.6%2026-07-25 22:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.47%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%3.6%2026-07-26 01:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.47%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%3.6%2026-07-25 17:50
Smarkets4.30I 23.26%NM 19.95%1.47I 68.03%NM 58.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.71%16.6%2026-07-25 07:05