The School of Odds
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Elversberg v Augsburg

2026-10-17 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elversberg (Local)

Prediction 40.17%2.49fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.978%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%40.06%40.00%41.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.302.4346.51%43.14%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Augsburg (Visit)

Prediction 34.92%2.86fair odd
EV +0.206%
Edge +0.072%
Kelly +0.110%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.85%34.96%35.09%36.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.622.632.8742.55%38.12%38.02%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.91%4.01fair odd
EV -0.356%
Edge -0.089%
Kelly -0.119%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.77%24.98%24.91%26.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.683.704.0028.57%27.16%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Elversberg (Local): 40.17%; Augsburg (Visit): 34.92%; Draw: 24.91%. For Augsburg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.87, producing a positive expected value of +0.206%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.49%EV -2.38%E -0.978%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 34.28%EV +0.206%E +0.072%K +0.110%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.23%EV -2.85%E -0.730%K -0.982%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-21 09:13
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.21%EV -7.20%E -3.12%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.87%EV -1.89%E -0.672%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.92%EV -4.84%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 11:35
Bovada🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.10%EV -7.20%E -3.12%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.91%EV -2.24%E -0.799%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.99%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 11:26
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -2.24%E -0.799%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-21 09:09
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -5.73%E -2.12%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 09:50
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -5.73%E -2.12%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 09:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -5.73%E -2.12%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 09:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -5.73%E -2.12%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 09:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -5.59%E -2.38%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -7.47%E -2.82%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -2.85%E -0.730%K -0.982%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-21 09:49
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -5.59%E -2.38%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.40%EV -7.47%E -2.82%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-21 10:48
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -5.59%E -2.38%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.40%EV -7.47%E -2.82%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.34%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-21 10:54
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -4.39%E -1.84%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.63%EV -8.17%E -3.11%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.58%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-21 10:54
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.95%EV -4.39%E -1.84%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.29%EV -8.52%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -0.356%E -0.089%K -0.119%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-21 09:50
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.14%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.24%EV -8.52%E -3.25%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -6.58%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 09:24
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -9.22%E -3.55%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -6.58%E -1.76%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 10:52
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -3.58%E -1.49%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -10.97%E -4.30%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -7.83%E -2.12%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-21 09:49
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -3.58%E -1.49%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -10.97%E -4.30%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-21 09:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -3.58%E -1.49%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -10.97%E -4.30%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-21 09:50
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.70%EV -13.63%E -6.34%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -12.71%E -5.08%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -10.32%E -2.87%K -3.97%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-21 09:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.01%EV -13.41%E -5.41%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -11.57%E -3.26%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-21 09:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.58%EV -11.62%E -5.28%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.54%EV -14.46%E -5.90%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-21 09:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -9.61%E -4.27%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.46%EV -16.20%E -6.75%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.65%EV -11.57%E -3.26%K -4.54%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-21 09:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.46%EV -9.61%E -4.27%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.82%EV -17.95%E -7.64%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -12.81%E -3.66%K -5.12%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-21 08:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 38.11%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.19%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.71%16.1%2026-09-21 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 11:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 11:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 11:59