Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Borussia Monchengladbach v FSV Mainz 05

2026-09-19 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Résultat du match

31 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Borussia Monchengladbach (Local)

Prévision 36.42%2.75cote équitable
EV +0.875%
Avantage +0.316%
Kelly +0.494%
Croissance +0.004%

avec la cote maximale 2.77

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.73%36.31%36.44%37.73%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.352.552.552.7742.55%39.22%39.22%36.10%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.04%2.63cote équitable
EV -3.00%
Avantage -1.18%
Kelly -1.94%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.84%38.13%37.97%39.34%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.252.462.502.5544.44%40.69%40.00%39.22%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 25.54%3.91cote équitable
EV -2.42%
Avantage -0.634%
Kelly -0.859%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.82

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.62%25.55%25.59%26.32%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.403.653.703.8229.41%27.41%27.03%26.18%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Pour Résultat du match, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estime les probabilités suivantes : Borussia Monchengladbach (Local) : 36.42% ; FSV Mainz 05 (Visiteur) : 38.04% ; Match nul : 25.54%. Pour Borussia Monchengladbach (Local), cette estimation équivaut à une cote décimale juste de 2.75. 1 opérateur propose une cote supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure cote disponible est 2.77, pour une espérance positive de +0.875%.

Cotes des opérateurs (31 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 35.57%EV +0.875%E +0.316%K +0.494%G +0.004%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.64%EV -3.00%E -1.18%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.79%EV -2.42%E -0.634%K -0.859%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-06 20:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.62%EV -0.946%E -0.348%K -0.550%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.60%EV -4.52%E -1.80%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.77%EV -3.96%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 20:09
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.73%EV -0.946%E -0.348%K -0.550%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.03%EV -7.95%E -3.28%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 20:10
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.73%EV -0.946%E -0.348%K -0.550%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.03%EV -7.95%E -3.28%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 20:10
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.26%EV -1.67%E -0.620%K -0.985%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.34%EV -7.95%E -3.28%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 20:15
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.32%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.32%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 20:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.32%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 20:19
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.32%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 19:15
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.00%E -1.18%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.00%E -1.18%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 19:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.78%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 19:15
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:15
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.80%E -2.78%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 19:15
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.80%E -2.78%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.80%E -2.78%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 20:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.14%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.80%E -2.78%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 20:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.06%EV -8.23%E -3.27%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.34%EV -9.85%E -4.15%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -9.32%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 20:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 19:25
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.80%E -2.78%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 19:15
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.71%E -3.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 19:15
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 19:10
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 17:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 19:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 19:09
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.71%E -3.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 20:25
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.71%E -3.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 19:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -12.60%E -5.25%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -12.51%E -5.44%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-06 20:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -14.42%E -6.14%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -8.71%E -3.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-06 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.55%EV -14.42%E -6.14%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.18%EV -14.41%E -6.41%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27%EV -13.15%E -3.87%K -5.48%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-06 20:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 36.48%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%7.1%2026-09-06 20:10
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 36.02%2.28I 43.86%NM 37.60%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.38%16.6%2026-09-06 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-06 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-06 19:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-09-06 19:15