The School of Odds

Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV

2026-08-29 16:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

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Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Borussia Dortmund (Local)

Prediction 70.73%1.41fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -6.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.84%70.68%70.75%72.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.241.321.321.3881%76%76%72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 11.67%8.57fair odd
EV +10.85%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.139%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.24%11.67%11.68%13.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.757.908.009.5015%13%13%11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 17.60%5.68fair odd
EV +0.315%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.067%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.62%17.65%17.57%19.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.755.295.355.7021%19%19%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.35I 74.07%NM 72.07%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.24%EV +10.85%E +1.14%K +1.28%G +0.139%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-23 05:59
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 71.49%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.57%EV +5.02%E +0.557%K +0.627%G +0.031%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.94%EV -6.72%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-23 06:00
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.86%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV +5.02%E +0.557%K +0.627%G +0.031%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.62%EV +0.315%E +0.055%K +0.067%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 09:15
1xBet1.38I 72.46%NM 71.24%EV -2.39%E -1.73%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.17%EV +2.68%E +0.305%K +0.344%G +0.009%5.59I 17.89%NM 17.59%EV -1.62%E -0.290%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.7%2026-07-25 10:01
NordicBet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.81%EV -3.10%E -2.26%K -8.37%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.87%EV +2.68%E +0.305%K +0.344%G +0.009%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.32%EV -12.88%E -2.60%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-24 17:04
Betsson1.37I 72.99%NM 69.81%EV -3.10%E -2.26%K -8.37%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.87%EV +2.68%E +0.305%K +0.344%G +0.009%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.32%EV -12.88%E -2.60%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-24 17:05
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 71.31%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.76%EV +2.10%E +0.240%K +0.271%G +0.006%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.93%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-23 05:59
Marathon Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 71.25%EV -3.80%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 11.14%EV +1.52%E +0.174%K +0.197%G +0.003%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.62%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-25 09:55
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -0.817%E -0.096%K -0.109%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 15:05
BetOnline.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -0.817%E -0.096%K -0.109%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 20:05
LowVig.ag1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -0.817%E -0.096%K -0.109%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 20:10
TAB1.35I 74.07%NM 69.99%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -0.817%E -0.096%K -0.109%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-22 21:39
Caesars1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -0.817%E -0.096%K -0.109%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 02:09
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -0.817%E -0.096%K -0.109%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 05:59
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -0.817%E -0.096%K -0.109%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-23 05:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -0.817%E -0.096%K -0.109%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-23 05:59
Bovada1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.49%EV -3.73%E -0.453%K -0.515%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 05:17
Coral1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 16:54
Codere (IT)1.35I 74.07%NM 70.48%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.62%EV -4.96%E -0.919%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 07:10
BetMGM1.34I 74.63%NM 70.86%EV -5.22%E -3.89%K -15.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 16:54
BetUS1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-14 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 16:55
Neds1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 16:54
Pinnacle1.32I 75.76%NM 70.97%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.41I 18.48%NM 17.32%EV -4.79%E -0.885%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 05:30
PointsBet (AU)1.31I 76.34%NM 71.33%EV -7.34%E -5.60%K -23.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 05:45
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-16 23:50
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 70.88%EV -7.34%E -5.60%K -23.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -6.72%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 06:00
Bet Victor1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -8.76%E -6.79%K -30.19%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 09:04
betano_uk1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -8.76%E -6.79%K -30.19%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -6.65%E -0.831%K -0.950%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 09:04
PlayUp1.33I 75.19%NM 68.89%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.82%EV -9.57%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -16.40%E -3.45%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 17:05
Suprabets1.30I 76.92%NM 70.48%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.90%EV -10.15%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-13 20:07
BetRivers1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 01:54
Bally Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:34
Grosvenor1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:35
Unibet (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:34
Casumo1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:34
Unibet (NL)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:35
Svenska Spel1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:35
TABtouch1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:40
ATG (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:39
Unibet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 04:45
betPARX1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-07 10:05
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 17:31
Hard Rock Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-25 07:04
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 07:10
Unibet (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 07:05
Everygame1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-13 12:15
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-15 22:40
DraftKings1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.76%E -6.79%K -30.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-06 11:29
NetBet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 70.75%EV -12.29%E -9.91%K -51.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.70%EV -12.49%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-22 13:43
Winamax (DE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.78%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -18.32%E -2.62%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -4.96%E -0.919%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 07:05
Unibet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 69.58%EV -10.88%E -8.63%K -41.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.52%EV -18.32%E -2.62%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -13.76%E -2.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-25 07:05
Betclic (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 69.03%EV -10.17%E -8.01%K -37.67%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.71%EV -19.49%E -2.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -15.52%E -3.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-24 08:02
Winamax (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.32%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.35%EV -21.24%E -3.15%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-25 07:04
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 68.84%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -21.24%E -3.15%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-07 04:35
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 68.84%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -21.24%E -3.15%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-07 04:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 71.89%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.78%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%3.0%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 71.89%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.78%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%3.0%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 71.89%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.78%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%3.0%2026-07-25 09:10
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 67.71%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.33%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.96%17.2%2026-07-24 08:05