Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg

2026-10-18 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 57.53%1.74fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.59%57.25%57.76%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.621.621.6963.69%61.63%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 21.13%4.73fair odd
EV +1.84%
Edge +0.381%
Kelly +0.480%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 4.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.25%21.21%21.02%23.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.364.404.8226.67%22.94%22.73%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.34%4.69fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.349%
Kelly -0.446%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.55%21.54%21.22%23.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.244.204.6125.97%23.60%23.81%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 57.53%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 21.13%; Draw: 21.34%. For SC Freiburg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.82, producing a positive expected value of +1.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 58.23%EV -2.77%E -1.64%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.42%EV +1.84%E +0.381%K +0.480%G +0.009%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.35%EV -1.61%E -0.349%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-21 09:04
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.08%EV -5.65%E -3.45%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27%EV -0.700%E -0.149%K -0.189%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-21 10:48
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -3.93%E -2.35%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV -2.81%E -0.611%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-21 10:08
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.11%EV -5.65%E -3.45%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -2.81%E -0.611%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -3.96%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-21 09:51
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -6.80%E -4.20%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -2.81%E -0.611%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 10:09
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.58%EV -8.53%E -5.36%K -14.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -2.81%E -0.611%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -6.09%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-21 10:54
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.09%EV -6.23%E -3.82%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.72%EV -3.45%E -0.754%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.18%EV -4.60%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-21 09:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -6.80%E -4.20%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -4.93%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -1.82%E -0.397%K -0.507%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 09:19
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.67%EV -6.80%E -4.20%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.93%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 10:54
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.68%E -6.16%K -16.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -4.93%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -3.96%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-21 12:24
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -7.95%E -4.97%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -4.93%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 10:52
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.02%EV -6.80%E -4.20%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.04%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 09:04
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -7.38%E -4.58%K -12.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.04%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -7.38%E -4.58%K -12.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.04%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 09:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -7.38%E -4.58%K -12.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.04%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 09:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -2.77%E -1.64%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -10.21%E -2.40%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-21 09:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -3.93%E -2.35%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -11.26%E -2.68%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-21 09:04
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -3.93%E -2.35%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -13.38%E -3.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -12.50%E -3.05%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-21 09:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.18%EV -6.80%E -4.20%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.07%EV -14.43%E -3.56%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.75%EV -16.12%E -4.10%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-21 09:04
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -9.68%E -6.16%K -16.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.49%E -3.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -10.36%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-21 09:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.55%EV -9.10%E -5.76%K -15.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -15.49%E -3.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.51%EV -16.76%E -4.30%K -5.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-21 09:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.76%EV -7.95%E -4.97%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.06%EV -19.71%E -5.19%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.18%EV -15.70%E -3.97%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-21 08:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.59%EV -9.10%E -5.76%K -15.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.00%EV -20.77%E -5.54%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.40%EV -17.83%E -4.63%K -6.26%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-21 09:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 54.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.64%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.25%16.2%2026-09-21 09:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-09-21 12:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-09-21 12:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%174.4%2026-09-21 12:34