Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg

2026-10-18 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 57.09%1.75fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.55%57.14%57.04%58.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.641.651.7264.10%60.84%60.61%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 21.01%4.76fair odd
EV +1.47%
Edge +0.304%
Kelly +0.383%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.80%20.99%21.01%22.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.414.434.8325.97%22.69%22.60%20.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.90%4.57fair odd
EV +0.743%
Edge +0.162%
Kelly +0.207%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.57%21.87%21.94%23.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.244.204.6025.97%23.56%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 57.09%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 21.01%; Draw: 21.90%. For SC Freiburg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.76. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.83, producing a positive expected value of +1.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.84%EV -2.94%E -1.73%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 20.36%EV +1.47%E +0.304%K +0.383%G +0.006%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.80%EV -1.23%E -0.272%K -0.350%G +0.000%1.7%2026-09-22 13:59
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.05%EV -4.66%E -2.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.41%EV -0.214%E -0.045%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -1.45%E -0.321%K -0.413%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-11 08:46
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.47%EV -4.66%E -2.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.21%EV -0.214%E -0.045%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -5.83%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 14:25
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.99%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -0.214%E -0.045%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.22%EV -11.30%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 16:55
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.99%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -0.214%E -0.045%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.22%EV -11.30%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.08%EV -6.37%E -3.88%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27%EV -1.26%E -0.269%K -0.342%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -3.64%E -0.827%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-21 10:48
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.66%E -2.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV -3.36%E -0.731%K -0.935%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.06%EV -5.17%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-21 10:08
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.80%EV -4.66%E -2.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -3.36%E -0.731%K -0.935%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 16:30
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.80%EV -4.66%E -2.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -3.36%E -0.731%K -0.935%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 16:29
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.58%EV -9.22%E -5.80%K -15.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -3.36%E -0.731%K -0.935%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -3.64%E -0.827%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-21 10:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -1.80%E -1.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV -1.45%E -0.321%K -0.413%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-10 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -1.80%E -1.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV -1.45%E -0.321%K -0.413%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -1.80%E -1.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV -1.45%E -0.321%K -0.413%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%EV -4.09%E -2.43%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%EV -5.83%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.83%EV -4.66%E -2.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -5.83%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -3.64%E -0.827%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 00:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -7.51%E -4.64%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV +0.743%E +0.162%K +0.207%G +0.002%5.7%2026-10-11 08:05
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-22 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-22 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-22 16:30
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.67%EV -7.51%E -4.64%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -5.17%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-21 10:54
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -7.51%E -4.64%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.92%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 13:40
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -14.59%E -3.74%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 20:45
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -8.65%E -5.41%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 10:52
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.70%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -5.47%E -1.21%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -15.68%E -4.07%K -5.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 13:39
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.23%EV -6.31%E -1.41%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.38%EV -2.98%E -0.673%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 14:00
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.23%EV -6.31%E -1.41%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.38%EV -2.98%E -0.673%K -0.869%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.27%EV -5.23%E -3.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.36%EV -6.52%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.36%EV -2.54%E -0.571%K -0.737%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 13:58
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.94%E -1.73%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79%EV -7.57%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79%EV -3.64%E -0.827%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 14:01
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.02%EV -7.51%E -4.64%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -7.57%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 09:04
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -8.08%E -5.02%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.57%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -8.08%E -5.02%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.57%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 09:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -8.08%E -5.02%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -7.57%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 09:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.32%EV -8.65%E -5.41%K -14.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -7.57%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 16:30
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.42%EV -4.09%E -2.43%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -8.62%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -4.73%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -8.62%E -1.98%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-24 23:09
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.52%EV -6.37%E -3.88%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -9.04%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 13:34
Everygame🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.82%EV -7.51%E -4.64%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.26%EV -9.04%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 13:43
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.36%EV -8.08%E -5.02%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.96%EV -9.04%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -12.40%E -3.10%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 16:31
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.36%EV -8.08%E -5.02%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.96%EV -9.04%E -2.09%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -12.40%E -3.10%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 01:30
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.14%EV -5.23%E -3.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.72%E -2.52%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -6.92%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:01
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.14%EV -5.23%E -3.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.72%E -2.52%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -6.92%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:00
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.14%EV -5.23%E -3.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.72%E -2.52%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -6.92%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.14%EV -5.23%E -3.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -10.72%E -2.52%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -6.92%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -10.72%E -2.52%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -6.92%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-25 12:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -5.23%E -3.15%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -11.77%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 13:59
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -11.77%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -11.77%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -11.77%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 14:01
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.80%E -3.51%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -11.77%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 10:05
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.97%EV -8.08%E -5.02%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -11.77%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.18%EV -5.17%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 16:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -10.37%E -6.60%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -11.77%E -2.80%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.40%E -3.10%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-11 13:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -6.94%E -4.26%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -13.87%E -3.38%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -10.21%E -2.49%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -10.37%E -6.60%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.97%E -3.99%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -8.02%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-26 06:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.71%EV -9.80%E -6.20%K -16.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.28%EV -17.02%E -4.31%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -12.40%E -3.10%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-10 16:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.55%EV -10.94%E -7.01%K -19.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.51%EV -19.12%E -4.97%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.94%EV -13.49%E -3.42%K -4.57%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-10 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.38%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.31%3.1%2026-10-11 09:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 57.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%4.3%2026-10-10 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 57.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%4.3%2026-10-10 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 57.39%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%4.3%2026-10-10 22:55
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 56.42%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%6.8%2026-10-11 13:45
Matchbook◎1.63I 61.35%NM 56.59%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%8.4%2026-10-11 13:45