The School of Odds
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Augsburg v Bayern Munich

2026-10-10 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Augsburg (Local)

Prediction 9.96%10.04fair odd
EV +11.54%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.130%

assuming max odds 11.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.60%10.01%9.77%11.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.409.299.5011.2013.51%10.76%10.53%8.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayern Munich (Visit)

Prediction 78.18%1.28fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -3.79%
Kelly -21.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.18%78.19%78.63%80.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.181.2287.72%84.71%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.86%8.43fair odd
EV +10.92%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.143%

assuming max odds 9.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.53%11.81%11.60%12.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.737.639.3514.81%12.94%13.11%10.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Augsburg (Local): 9.96%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 78.18%; Draw: 11.86%. For Augsburg (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.04. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.20, producing a positive expected value of +11.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯11.20I 8.93%NM 8.79%EV +11.54%E +1.03%K +1.13%G +0.130%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.68%EV -4.62%E -3.79%K -21.01%G +0.000%9.35I 10.70%NM 10.53%EV +10.92%E +1.17%K +1.31%G +0.143%1.6%2026-09-16 14:29
Tipico (DE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.04%EV +4.56%E +0.435%K +0.480%G +0.022%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.42%EV -7.75%E -6.57%K -43.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +6.76%E +0.752%K +0.845%G +0.057%5.4%2026-09-16 19:35
Pinnacle🎯9.69I 10.32%NM 9.70%EV -3.50%E -0.361%K -0.403%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.97%EV -6.97%E -5.85%K -36.67%G +0.000%8.29I 12.06%NM 11.34%EV -1.66%E -0.200%K -0.228%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-16 14:31
Codere (IT)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -0.415%E -0.041%K -0.046%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.97%EV -6.19%E -5.15%K -30.93%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.56%EV -2.73%E -0.332%K -0.379%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-16 17:25
888sport🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.39%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.63%EV -7.75%E -6.57%K -43.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.10%E -0.637%K -0.728%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 15:11
William Hill🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.39%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.63%EV -7.75%E -6.57%K -43.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.10%E -0.637%K -0.728%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 15:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.39%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.63%EV -7.75%E -6.57%K -43.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.10%E -0.637%K -0.728%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 15:11
888sport (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.39%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.63%EV -7.75%E -6.57%K -43.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.10%E -0.637%K -0.728%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-16 15:11
Betr (AU)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +4.56%E +0.435%K +0.480%G +0.022%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.79%EV -6.19%E -5.15%K -30.93%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.20%EV -8.06%E -1.04%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-16 15:15
betfred_uk🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +9.54%E +0.868%K +0.954%G +0.091%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -6.19%E -5.15%K -30.93%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -11.03%E -1.47%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-16 15:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -5.39%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.89%EV -6.97%E -5.85%K -36.67%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.03%E -1.47%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-16 14:31
LeoVegas🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -10.37%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.61%EV -7.75%E -6.57%K -43.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.21%EV -11.03%E -1.47%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-16 16:35
DraftKings🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -15.35%E -1.81%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.30%EV -8.53%E -7.29%K -50.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -11.03%E -1.47%K -1.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-16 19:04
BoyleSports🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -20.33%E -2.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.98%EV -7.75%E -6.57%K -43.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.81%EV -16.96%E -2.42%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-16 13:50
Betclic (FR)🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.21%EV -12.86%E -1.47%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.02%EV -9.31%E -8.03%K -58.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.76%EV -16.96%E -2.42%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 16:34
Winamax (DE)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.30%EV -22.82%E -2.94%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.18%EV -10.09%E -8.78%K -67.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.52%EV -16.96%E -2.42%K -2.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-16 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 11.89%EV -26.31%E -3.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 75.18%EV -8.53%E -7.29%K -50.18%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.94%EV -19.33%E -2.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-16 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.51%EV -25.31%E -3.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 75.71%EV -10.88%E -9.54%K -77.69%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.79%EV -19.93%E -2.95%K -3.47%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-16 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎7.60I 13.16%NM 11.19%1.14I 87.72%NM 74.63%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.18%17.5%2026-09-16 16:35