Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saint Etienne v Red Star

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saint Etienne (Local)

Prediction 53.77%1.86fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.12%53.67%53.77%54.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.731.7961.73%57.51%57.80%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Red Star (Visit)

Prediction 20.80%4.81fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.219%
Kelly +0.276%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.70%20.89%20.81%23.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.284.304.8625.32%23.35%23.26%20.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.43%3.93fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -0.885%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.28%25.44%25.43%27.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.583.603.8032.26%27.91%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saint Etienne (Local): 53.77%; Red Star (Visit): 20.80%; Draw: 25.43%. For Red Star (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.81. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.41%EV -5.36%E -3.04%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.70%EV +1.06%E +0.219%K +0.276%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 18:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.25%EV -4.82%E -2.72%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.80%EV +0.856%E +0.177%K +0.222%G +0.002%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 18:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.25%EV -4.82%E -2.72%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.80%EV +0.856%E +0.177%K +0.222%G +0.002%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -6.43%E -3.70%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.34%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 18:34
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.34%E -0.944%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.37%EV -7.51%E -4.37%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.55%EV -5.38%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.07%EV -5.14%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.19%EV -7.51%E -4.37%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.48%EV -5.38%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -6.41%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 18:44
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.84%EV -8.05%E -4.71%K -11.33%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -5.38%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.93%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 18:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -5.90%E -3.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.63%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 08:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.05%E -4.71%K -11.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 18:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-07 18:44
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:30
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:34
Suprabets🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.54%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.23%EV -11.75%E -3.39%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 18:34
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.42%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -12.26%E -3.55%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 18:35
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.83%EV -7.51%E -4.37%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -7.46%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 09:04
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.83%EV -7.51%E -4.37%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -7.46%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 08:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -5.36%E -3.04%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 18:39
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -6.43%E -3.70%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 18:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.53%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -3.36%E -0.885%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 18:34
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -6.43%E -3.70%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 18:45
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.66%EV -8.05%E -4.71%K -11.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -8.50%E -1.93%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-07 18:39
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -9.96%E -2.30%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.19%EV -5.90%E -3.37%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -10.58%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.54%EV -4.82%E -2.72%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -10.58%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 18:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.27%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -10.58%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -3.36%E -0.885%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 08:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.27%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -10.58%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -3.36%E -0.885%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 08:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -10.58%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-07 08:55
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.47%EV -7.51%E -4.37%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.99%EV -10.58%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-07 18:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.20%EV -6.43%E -3.70%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -11.62%E -2.73%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -5.90%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 18:54
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -6.43%E -3.70%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -12.66%E -3.01%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 18:54
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -7.51%E -4.37%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -12.66%E -3.01%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -12.66%E -3.01%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 18:39
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.47%EV -12.89%E -7.95%K -20.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -12.66%E -3.01%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-07 08:49
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:49
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:50
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:49
LeoVegas🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:50
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:50
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:50
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -3.75%E -2.09%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 10:50
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-07 18:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-07 18:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-07 18:44
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -6.97%E -4.03%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-07 18:45
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -8.58%E -5.05%K -12.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -10.99%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-07 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.12%EV -10.20%E -6.11%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.34%EV -16.82%E -4.20%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.54%EV -21.16%E -6.83%K -10.08%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-07 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -4.82%E -2.72%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -17.86%E -4.52%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -4.82%E -2.72%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -17.86%E -4.52%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -4.82%E -2.72%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -17.86%E -4.52%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.72%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.82I 54.95%NM 54.58%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-03-07 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 54.58%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-03-07 18:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 54.58%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-03-07 18:49
Matchbook1.82I 54.95%NM 54.58%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-03-07 18:50
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 54.68%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.09%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.24%1.6%2026-03-07 18:40