Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Red Star v Sochaux

Inicio: 2026-08-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Red Star 0–0 Sochaux

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Red Star (Local)

Predicción 48.18%2.08momio equitativo
EV -3.63%
Ventaja -1.82%
Kelly -3.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.90%48.37%48.15%52.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.701.871.912.0058.82%53.54%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sochaux (Visitante)

Predicción 24.14%4.14momio equitativo
EV +8.62%
Ventaja +1.92%
Kelly +2.46%
Crecimiento +0.212%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.90%23.92%24.11%24.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.953.854.5027.78%25.34%25.97%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.68%3.61momio equitativo
EV -3.12%
Ventaja -0.893%
Kelly -1.25%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.67%27.71%27.74%28.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.293.303.5032.26%30.36%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Red Star (Local): 48.18%; Sochaux (Visitante): 24.14%; Empate: 27.68%. Para Sochaux (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.14. 14 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.62%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -13.27%E -7.37%K -16.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV +8.62%E +1.92%K +2.46%G +0.212%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.12%E -0.893%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-13 08:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -13.27%E -7.37%K -16.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV +8.62%E +1.92%K +2.46%G +0.212%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.12%E -0.893%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-13 08:24
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -15.68%E -8.96%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV +3.79%E +0.882%K +1.15%G +0.044%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-13 08:25
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -15.68%E -8.96%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV +3.79%E +0.882%K +1.15%G +0.044%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-13 08:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -15.68%E -8.96%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV +3.79%E +0.882%K +1.15%G +0.044%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-13 08:25
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -15.68%E -8.96%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV +3.79%E +0.882%K +1.15%G +0.044%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-13 08:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -15.68%E -8.96%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV +3.79%E +0.882%K +1.15%G +0.044%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-13 08:25
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -15.68%E -8.96%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV +3.79%E +0.882%K +1.15%G +0.044%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-13 08:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -15.68%E -8.96%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV +3.79%E +0.882%K +1.15%G +0.044%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-13 08:25
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -15.68%E -8.96%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV +3.79%E +0.882%K +1.15%G +0.044%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-13 08:25
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.92%EV -17.12%E -9.96%K -23.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV +2.58%E +0.608%K +0.795%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-13 08:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.87%EV -18.09%E -10.64%K -25.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.00%EV +1.38%E +0.328%K +0.431%G +0.006%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.04%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-13 08:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.87%EV -18.09%E -10.64%K -25.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.00%EV +1.38%E +0.328%K +0.431%G +0.006%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.04%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-13 08:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.87%EV -18.09%E -10.64%K -25.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.00%EV +1.38%E +0.328%K +0.431%G +0.006%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.04%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-13 08:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -10.86%E -5.87%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -1.04%E -0.253%K -0.334%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 16:24
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.32%EV -4.11%E -2.07%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.80%EV -2.48%E -0.615%K -0.817%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%EV -4.51%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-14 18:30
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -3.45%E -0.862%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-14 18:19
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -8.45%E -4.45%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -3.45%E -0.862%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 18:19
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.40%EV -3.63%E -1.82%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 18:19
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -7.01%E -3.63%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 18:30
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -7.01%E -3.63%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 18:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -5.34%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:39
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -6.04%E -3.10%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.04%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 16:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.45%EV -9.90%E -5.29%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.31%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.33%EV -8.45%E -4.45%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -7.07%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 17:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.33%EV -8.45%E -4.45%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -7.07%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 17:04
Suprabets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.35%EV -9.41%E -5.01%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.67%EV -7.31%E -1.90%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -10.04%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 18:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -6.04%E -3.10%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:04
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.73%EV -6.04%E -3.10%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-14 18:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.23%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.40%EV -6.45%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 18:19
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 14:59
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 18:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 18:25
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 18:25
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -9.90%E -5.29%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-14 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV -4.11%E -2.07%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV -4.11%E -2.07%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 16:19
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 18:33
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.76%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.45%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 17:05
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.76%EV -7.49%E -3.90%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.45%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 17:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.62%EV -9.90%E -5.29%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -10.86%E -5.87%K -12.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -14.20%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-14 18:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-14 17:10
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.43%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -14.20%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 16:14
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -14.20%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 16:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -14.20%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 16:15
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.97%E -4.17%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -14.20%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-14 16:14
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.89%EV -13.27%E -7.37%K -16.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.77%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-14 15:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-08-14 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-08-14 18:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-08-14 18:34