Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pau FC v Nancy

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 18:00 UTC

Final: Pau FC 1–3 Nancy

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pau FC (Local)

Prediction 35.81%2.79fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%35.89%35.89%37.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.542.552.7142.02%39.41%39.22%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nancy (Visit)

Prediction 35.70%2.80fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.659%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.13%35.68%35.64%37.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.622.7541.67%38.18%38.17%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.48%3.51fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -0.930%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.34%28.43%28.47%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.203.203.4034.72%31.28%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pau FC (Local): 35.81%; Nancy (Visit): 35.70%; Draw: 28.48%. For Nancy (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.06%EV -2.94%E -1.09%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.06%EV -3.24%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.88%EV -9.43%E -2.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -3.30%E -1.22%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -7.17%E -2.76%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -3.16%E -0.930%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%EV -4.73%E -1.78%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -7.17%E -2.76%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%EV -4.73%E -1.78%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -7.17%E -2.76%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 17:55
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -5.09%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.60%E -1.33%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 17:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.09%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -7.43%E -2.29%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 17:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -5.09%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 17:25
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -5.09%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -10.74%E -4.30%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.43%E -2.29%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 17:25
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV -5.81%E -2.21%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.03%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.34%EV -3.16%E -0.930%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 17:50
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.28%EV -6.17%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.83%EV -7.88%E -3.06%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 17:25
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.28%EV -6.17%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.83%EV -7.88%E -3.06%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 17:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -6.17%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.43%E -2.29%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 17:34
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.69%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 17:50
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 17:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 17:25
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:50
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:25
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -10.74%E -4.30%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.43%E -2.29%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 17:24
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.74%E -4.30%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 17:25
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 17:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 17:25
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 17:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.67%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.17%E -2.76%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 17:45
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -8.67%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -10.74%E -4.30%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:25
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -8.67%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 17:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.67%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.28%E -3.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.89%EV -9.39%E -3.71%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.83%EV -4.31%E -1.61%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.13%EV -9.75%E -3.87%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.42%EV -8.24%E -3.21%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 17:55
Bovada🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.70%EV -10.11%E -4.03%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.51%EV -4.67%E -1.75%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 17:54
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -10.46%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -3.16%E -0.930%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 17:54
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.46%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -7.17%E -2.76%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-02 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -10.46%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -7.17%E -2.76%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.46%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.74%E -4.30%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -7.43%E -2.29%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-02 17:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.46%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -10.74%E -4.30%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -7.43%E -2.29%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-02 17:25
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -10.46%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -7.17%E -2.76%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -14.56%E -4.85%K -7.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.37%EV -10.46%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.80%EV -14.31%E -5.96%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.83%EV -17.97%E -6.24%K -9.56%G +0.000%16.4%2026-05-02 17:35
Suprabets🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 36.50%EV -10.82%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 35.09%EV -7.53%E -2.91%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:42
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -12.26%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.28%E -3.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
LeoVegas🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:51
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.84%EV -12.97%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -14.05%E -5.85%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -10.28%E -3.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -14.05%E -5.85%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -10.28%E -3.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -14.05%E -5.85%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -1.81%E -0.659%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -10.28%E -3.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 13:50
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.77%EV -14.76%E -6.20%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -10.74%E -4.30%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.23%EV -11.71%E -3.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-02 17:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.68%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.38%0.1%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.68%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.38%0.1%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.68%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.93%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.38%0.1%2026-05-02 17:55
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.76%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-05-02 17:55
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.71%2.0%2026-05-02 17:50