Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grenoble v Troyes

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 18:00 UTC

Final: Grenoble 1–0 Troyes

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grenoble (Local)

Prediction 26.60%3.76fair odd
EV -0.262%
Edge -0.070%
Kelly -0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.74%26.47%26.64%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.503.7530.77%28.44%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Troyes (Visit)

Prediction 47.90%2.09fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.83%47.98%47.86%49.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.901.911.9957.80%52.51%52.36%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.50%3.92fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.472%
Kelly -0.637%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.21%25.55%25.50%27.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.563.553.8530.77%28.08%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grenoble (Local): 26.60%; Troyes (Visit): 47.90%; Draw: 25.50%. For Grenoble (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -0.262%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -0.262%E -0.070%K -0.095%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.42%EV -9.95%E -5.29%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 17:19
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -0.262%E -0.070%K -0.095%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.42%EV -9.95%E -5.29%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 17:19
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -0.262%E -0.070%K -0.095%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.42%EV -9.95%E -5.29%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 17:19
Pinnacle🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.42%EV -0.528%E -0.141%K -0.193%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.02%EV -5.16%E -2.60%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.56%EV -8.70%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 17:35
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 17:30
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.34%EV -10.90%E -5.86%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 17:19
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:20
BetRivers🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:19
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:19
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:19
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:19
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:19
betPARX🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -1.59%E -0.430%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -2.92%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.31%EV -4.68%E -2.35%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 17:34
LowVig.ag🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -2.92%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.31%EV -4.68%E -2.35%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -2.92%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.45%EV -11.86%E -6.45%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -2.92%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.45%EV -11.86%E -6.45%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 17:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -2.92%E -0.800%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.58%EV -12.34%E -6.74%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:19
Marathon Bet🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -3.19%E -0.876%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.83%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.92%E -1.89%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 17:54
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.25%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.17%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.92%E -1.89%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:35
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -4.25%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.72%EV -7.55%E -3.91%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -12.02%E -3.48%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 17:48
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -4.25%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.72%EV -7.55%E -3.91%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -12.02%E -3.48%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 17:45
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -4.25%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.99%E -4.73%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 17:49
Suprabets🎯3.53I 28.33%NM 25.75%EV -6.11%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.35%EV -8.03%E -4.18%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.90%EV -13.80%E -4.08%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 17:36
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -6.91%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.08%EV -5.16%E -2.60%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -1.82%E -0.472%K -0.637%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 17:54
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.91%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -5.64%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 17:39
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.91%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -5.64%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:44
NetBet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.91%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:44
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.91%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 17:39
Everygame🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -6.91%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -13.29%E -3.91%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:34
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -6.91%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -10.43%E -5.58%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -13.29%E -3.91%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-09 17:49
Unibet (UK)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.24%E -2.39%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.58%EV -5.16%E -2.60%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.12%EV -4.37%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 17:43
Betclic (FR)🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -9.04%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.75%EV -7.07%E -3.65%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.17%EV -6.15%E -1.67%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:43
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -3.09%E -0.813%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -4.37%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 17:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.64%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 17:35
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 17:34
theScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -5.64%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 17:34
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.66%EV -8.03%E -4.18%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -8.19%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:45
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:19
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:19
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:19
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -11.38%E -6.15%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -15.84%E -4.80%K -6.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-09 17:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 24.93%EV -9.57%E -2.81%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 48.99%EV -17.13%E -9.90%K -23.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.08%EV -17.12%E -5.27%K -7.61%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-09 17:49
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -10.90%E -3.25%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -6.92%E -1.89%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 17:44
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -10.90%E -3.25%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.59%E -3.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -6.92%E -1.89%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 17:44
PlayUp🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -10.90%E -3.25%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.83%EV -5.16%E -2.60%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -14.57%E -4.35%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.23%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.91%EV -8.03%E -4.18%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -3.09%E -0.813%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:44
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -12.23%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.91%EV -8.03%E -4.18%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -3.09%E -0.813%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:44
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -12.23%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.98%EV -7.55%E -3.91%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -9.47%E -2.67%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:44
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.23%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-09 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.23%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-09 17:44
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.23%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-09 17:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.23%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -8.51%E -4.46%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.74%E -3.07%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-09 17:44
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.80%EV -13.56%E -4.17%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.59%EV -12.34%E -6.74%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.61%EV -13.29%E -3.91%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-09 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%1.0%2026-05-09 17:55
Matchbook3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.96%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.69%1.1%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98%1.3%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.80%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.5%2026-05-09 17:55
Smarkets3.85I 25.97%NM 25.52%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.63%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-05-09 17:54