Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Clermont v Sochaux

2026-08-28 18:00 UTC — Ligue 2 - France

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Clermont (Local)

Predicción 33.48%2.99momio equitativo
EV -1.25%
Ventaja -0.423%
Kelly -0.639%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.41%33.75%33.27%36.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.692.712.9540.82%37.20%36.90%33.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sochaux (Visitante)

Predicción 36.25%2.76momio equitativo
EV +3.32%
Ventaja +1.16%
Kelly +1.79%
Crecimiento +0.059%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.98%35.92%36.36%37.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.382.552.502.8542.02%39.24%40.00%35.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.27%3.30momio equitativo
EV -3.73%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -1.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.74%30.33%30.37%31.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.873.013.003.1834.84%33.20%33.33%31.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Clermont (Local): 33.48%; Sochaux (Visitante): 36.25%; Empate: 30.27%. Para Sochaux (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.76. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.85, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.32%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -12.96%E -4.99%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV +3.32%E +1.16%K +1.79%G +0.059%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-24 15:49
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -12.96%E -4.99%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -0.309%E -0.113%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-24 16:29
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -14.64%E -5.74%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -0.309%E -0.113%K -0.177%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -10.69%E -3.63%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-24 15:49
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -14.64%E -5.74%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -0.309%E -0.113%K -0.177%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -10.69%E -3.63%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-24 15:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -16.31%E -6.52%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -0.309%E -0.113%K -0.177%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.69%E -3.63%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-24 15:49
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -12.96%E -4.99%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.63%EV -3.93%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -7.67%E -2.51%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-24 16:28
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -16.31%E -6.52%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -4.66%E -1.77%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -12.21%E -4.21%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-24 16:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -16.31%E -6.52%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -4.66%E -1.77%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -12.21%E -4.21%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-24 16:29
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -12.29%E -4.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -5.02%E -1.92%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-24 15:49
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -12.29%E -4.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -5.02%E -1.92%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-24 15:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -16.31%E -6.52%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -5.02%E -1.92%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -12.21%E -4.21%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-24 16:29
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -16.31%E -6.52%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -5.02%E -1.92%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -12.21%E -4.21%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-24 16:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.56%E -2.96%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 15:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.56%E -2.96%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 15:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.09%EV -14.64%E -5.74%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.09%EV -7.56%E -2.96%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-24 15:49
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -1.25%E -0.423%K -0.639%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.31%EV -7.92%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-24 16:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.39%EV -8.95%E -3.29%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.04%EV -8.65%E -3.43%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.58%EV -10.09%E -3.40%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-24 18:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.77%EV -2.25%E -0.771%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.13%EV -9.79%E -3.28%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 18:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.77%EV -2.25%E -0.771%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.13%EV -9.79%E -3.28%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 18:24
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 20:20
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-24 16:18
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.62%E -3.56%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-24 15:59
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.62%E -3.56%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-24 16:04
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.62%E -3.56%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-24 15:59
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 16:29
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 16:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 16:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 16:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -16.31%E -6.52%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -6.15%E -1.98%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-24 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -17.98%E -7.34%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.04%EV -9.37%E -3.75%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-24 17:54
1xBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -5.93%E -2.11%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.47%EV -9.73%E -3.91%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.34%EV -3.73%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 16:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -5.93%E -2.11%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.47%EV -9.73%E -3.91%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.34%EV -3.73%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 20:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -11.18%E -4.57%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -12.21%E -4.21%K -6.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-24 20:24
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -6.27%E -2.24%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.00%E -5.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-24 18:48
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -6.27%E -2.24%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -13.00%E -5.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.18%E -3.06%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-24 15:44
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -12.96%E -4.99%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -13.00%E -5.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -12.21%E -4.21%K -6.43%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-24 15:59
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -7.94%E -2.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -13.72%E -5.77%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -12.21%E -4.21%K -6.43%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-24 15:54
Suprabets🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 31.96%EV -7.27%E -2.63%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -13.72%E -5.77%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.85%EV -13.12%E -4.57%K -7.01%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-24 15:47
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 34.18%1.08I 92.59%NM 32.91%1.08I 92.59%NM 32.91%181.3%2026-08-24 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 34.18%1.08I 92.59%NM 32.91%1.08I 92.59%NM 32.91%181.3%2026-08-24 18:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-24 18:09