La escuela de los momios

Clermont v Guingamp

Inicio: 2026-05-09 18:00 UTC

Final: Clermont 1–0 Guingamp

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Clermont (Local)

Predicción 36.68%2.73momio equitativo
EV -0.952%
Ventaja -0.353%
Kelly -0.560%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.69%36.74%36.64%38.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.382.542.522.7042.02%39.42%39.68%37.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Guingamp (Visitante)

Predicción 36.75%2.72momio equitativo
EV -3.72%
Ventaja -1.42%
Kelly -2.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.61%36.75%36.75%37.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.492.482.6243.48%40.21%40.32%38.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.57%3.76momio equitativo
EV -0.377%
Ventaja -0.101%
Kelly -0.137%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.12%26.51%26.61%28.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.433.403.7533.33%29.18%29.41%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -0.952%E -0.353%K -0.560%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.77%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 17:24
PMU (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -0.952%E -0.353%K -0.560%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.77%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 17:30
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -0.952%E -0.353%K -0.560%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.77%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 17:24
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:25
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:25
ATG (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:25
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:25
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:24
TABtouch2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:25
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:29
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:25
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 34.97%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:24
Pinnacle2.64I 37.88%NM 36.12%EV -3.15%E -1.19%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -5.92%E -2.31%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.63%EV -4.89%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 17:50
Virgin Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 34.73%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.59%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.33%E -3.74%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 34.73%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.59%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.33%E -3.74%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 17:24
LiveScore Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 34.73%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.59%EV -10.70%E -4.40%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -12.33%E -3.74%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 17:24
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.60%EV -4.62%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.60%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.69%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 17:45
Marathon Bet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.17%EV -5.35%E -2.08%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.32%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -6.49%E -1.84%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 17:44
Bovada2.56I 39.06%NM 36.05%EV -6.09%E -2.38%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.21%EV -8.86%E -3.57%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.35%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 17:48
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.45%E -2.53%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -4.36%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 17:54
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.45%E -2.53%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 17:44
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.45%E -2.53%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 17:35
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -6.45%E -2.53%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -12.33%E -3.74%K -5.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:55
Suprabets2.55I 39.22%NM 35.64%EV -6.45%E -2.53%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.55%EV -11.07%E -4.57%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 26.81%EV -9.94%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-09 17:46
Everygame2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -6.45%E -2.53%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:44
Betclic (FR)2.53I 39.53%NM 36.59%EV -7.19%E -2.84%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.73%EV -7.39%E -2.93%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.68%EV -7.82%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:38
BetOnline.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -7.56%E -3.00%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.86%EV -3.72%E -1.42%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 17:45
LowVig.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -7.56%E -3.00%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.86%EV -3.72%E -1.42%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 17:44
BetUS2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -7.56%E -3.00%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.86%EV -3.72%E -1.42%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 17:45
NetBet (FR)2.52I 39.68%NM 36.49%EV -7.56%E -3.00%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.23%EV -9.23%E -3.74%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:49
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.78%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -0.377%E -0.101%K -0.137%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 17:39
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -4.36%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 17:39
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 17:40
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 17:44
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 17:29
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 17:14
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:44
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:55
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:54
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:54
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:55
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.88%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.97%EV -11.00%E -3.28%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-09 17:44
theScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -4.36%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 17:39
Betsson2.45I 40.82%NM 37.42%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.38%EV -7.39%E -2.93%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:39
NordicBet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.42%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.38%EV -7.39%E -2.93%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:39
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.02%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 17:39
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:44
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -12.33%E -3.74%K -5.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 17:44
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 17:40
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 17:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.68%E -2.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 17:34
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.20%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -3.03%E -0.831%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:39
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.20%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -3.03%E -0.831%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:39
Sky Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 36.79%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.04%EV -9.96%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -13.66%E -4.20%K -6.07%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-09 17:44
BoyleSports2.40I 41.67%NM 36.09%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.66%EV -15.48%E -6.73%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -12.33%E -3.74%K -5.36%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-09 17:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 35.91%EV -12.69%E -5.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.61%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.49%EV -20.30%E -6.77%K -10.15%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-09 17:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-05-09 17:55
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-05-09 17:55
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 36.02%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.56%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%1.3%2026-05-09 17:54