Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boulogne v Red Star

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:00 UTC

Final: Boulogne 1–1 Red Star

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boulogne (Local)

Prediction 25.37%3.94fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.268%
Kelly -0.360%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%25.40%25.35%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.603.9030.30%28.08%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Red Star (Visit)

Prediction 45.47%2.20fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.07%45.46%45.39%46.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.042.1251.28%49.25%49.02%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.16%3.43fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.693%
Kelly -0.988%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.43%29.13%29.26%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.103.3534.48%31.95%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boulogne (Local): 25.37%; Red Star (Visit): 45.47%; Draw: 29.16%. For Boulogne (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.64%EV -1.04%E -0.268%K -0.360%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.33%EV -3.61%E -1.70%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.03%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-21 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -1.04%E -0.268%K -0.360%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.72%EV -10.43%E -5.29%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 17:45
DraftKings🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.58%E -0.943%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-21 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -3.58%E -0.943%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -4.51%E -2.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -11.07%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 17:39
LowVig.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -3.58%E -0.943%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -4.51%E -2.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -11.07%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 17:39
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.85%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.77%EV -5.42%E -2.61%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.78%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 16:49
Marathon Bet🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 24.94%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -7.28%E -2.29%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-21 17:44
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.12%E -1.65%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 17:44
BetMGM🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.12%E -1.65%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 17:44
SportsBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -6.12%E -1.65%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -11.07%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-21 17:40
BetUS🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.39%E -2.02%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.20%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -8.15%E -2.59%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-21 17:50
NetBet (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -7.39%E -2.02%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.81%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.15%E -2.59%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 17:44
Suprabets🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 25.00%EV -7.64%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.06%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 29.94%EV -11.36%E -3.74%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 17:39
betano_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.51%E -2.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 17:55
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.51%E -2.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -3.78%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 12:39
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.24%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -3.78%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 17:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.24%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-21 16:45
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 16:45
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 17:54
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 17:54
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 17:54
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 16:50
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 17:49
theScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -11.33%E -5.81%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 16:45
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.53%E -4.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-21 17:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.66%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.53%E -4.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-21 17:49
Betclic (FR)🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 25.88%EV -9.16%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.25%EV -4.36%E -1.33%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-21 17:33
PMU (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -9.92%E -2.80%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -4.51%E -2.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.24%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 14:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -9.92%E -2.80%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -4.51%E -2.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.24%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 14:40
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -9.92%E -2.80%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.45%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 12:39
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -9.92%E -2.80%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.45%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 12:39
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.19%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -12.53%E -4.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.19%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.53%E -4.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-21 16:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.19%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.53%E -4.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-21 16:45
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.19%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.53%E -4.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-21 16:45
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.19%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.53%E -4.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-21 16:44
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -11.19%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -15.44%E -5.33%K -8.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-21 17:39
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -11.19%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.31%EV -11.33%E -5.81%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -12.53%E -4.18%K -6.26%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-21 16:43
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -12.46%E -3.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -2.32%E -0.693%K -0.988%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 12:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -12.46%E -3.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -2.32%E -0.693%K -0.988%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 12:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -12.46%E -3.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -6.70%E -2.09%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 12:44
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.73%E -4.04%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 14:39
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.73%E -4.04%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.73%E -4.04%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.73%E -4.04%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 14:40
betPARX🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.73%E -4.04%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 14:39
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.73%E -4.04%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 14:40
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.73%E -4.04%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 14:40
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -13.73%E -4.04%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -7.24%E -3.55%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.61%E -3.10%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 14:39
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.62%EV -15.00%E -4.48%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.14%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -11.07%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-21 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -16.27%E -4.93%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.46%EV -9.97%E -5.04%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -11.07%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-21 14:39
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -16.27%E -4.93%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.46%EV -9.97%E -5.04%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -11.07%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-21 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -16.27%E -4.93%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.59%EV -10.43%E -5.29%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -11.07%E -3.63%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-21 14:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.32%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.76%0.3%2026-08-21 17:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-08-21 17:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-08-21 17:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-08-21 17:39
Smarkets4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-08-21 17:44