Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boulogne v Dijon

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 18:00 UTC

Final: Boulogne 1–1 Dijon

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boulogne (Local)

Prediction 32.18%3.11fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -0.909%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.61%32.08%32.14%34.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.862.883.0537.74%34.95%34.72%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dijon (Visit)

Prediction 37.44%2.67fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.46%37.44%37.39%38.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.482.6042.55%40.60%40.32%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.39%3.29fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.863%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.47%30.47%33.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.023.053.2036.36%33.06%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boulogne (Local): 32.18%; Dijon (Visit): 37.44%; Draw: 30.39%. For Boulogne (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -1.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.57%EV -1.86%E -0.611%K -0.909%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.76%EV -4.54%E -1.78%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.67%EV -4.58%E -1.46%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 10:30
BetUS🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.57%EV -1.86%E -0.611%K -0.909%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.76%EV -4.54%E -1.78%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.67%EV -4.58%E -1.46%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 10:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -3.47%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 13:10
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -3.47%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 13:09
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -3.47%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.94%EV -5.19%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 14:24
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -3.47%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.94%EV -5.19%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 14:23
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -3.47%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -4.54%E -1.78%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -16.44%E -5.98%K -9.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 11:49
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -5.08%E -1.72%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.04%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -2.76%E -0.863%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:30
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -5.08%E -1.72%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -5.80%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 08:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.33%EV -6.05%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -4.54%E -1.78%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.65%EV -6.41%E -2.08%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 09:59
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.07%EV -6.05%E -2.07%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.91%EV -7.53%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -5.19%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 10:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.05%EV -6.37%E -2.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.06%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -5.19%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -6.69%E -2.31%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -4.54%E -1.78%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.80%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 08:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -6.69%E -2.31%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -4.28%E -1.36%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 13:30
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -6.69%E -2.31%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 13:09
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.69%E -2.31%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.80%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 11:05
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:45
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:45
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:45
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:44
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.39%EV -7.16%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 08:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 10:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -5.80%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 13:25
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 13:10
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 09:15
William Hill🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 09:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -7.33%E -2.55%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 09:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.07%EV -7.66%E -2.67%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.26%EV -7.53%E -3.05%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 10:55
Suprabets🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.69%EV -7.66%E -2.67%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.58%EV -9.40%E -3.89%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 30.73%EV -10.05%E -3.40%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 10:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -8.30%E -2.91%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.80%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 13:30
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.29%EV -8.30%E -2.91%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.52%EV -5.66%E -2.25%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -10.36%E -3.51%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 08:15
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.29%EV -8.30%E -2.91%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.52%EV -5.66%E -2.25%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -10.36%E -3.51%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 08:15
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -8.30%E -2.91%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 10:57
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -8.30%E -2.91%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 13:04
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -8.30%E -2.91%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 08:55
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -8.30%E -2.91%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 14:05
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -9.91%E -3.54%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.41%E -2.56%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.76%E -0.863%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 08:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -9.91%E -3.54%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 08:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -9.91%E -3.54%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -8.28%E -3.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -7.32%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 08:30
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -9.91%E -3.54%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -12.02%E -5.12%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -5.80%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 13:25
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.49%EV -11.52%E -4.19%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.29%EV -10.36%E -3.51%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 08:45
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.32%EV -11.52%E -4.19%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.03%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-04 13:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -11.52%E -4.19%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -10.90%E -4.58%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 08:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -11.52%E -4.19%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -10.90%E -4.58%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 08:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.22%EV -11.52%E -4.19%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.23%EV -10.90%E -4.58%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 08:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -13.13%E -4.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 08:15
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -13.13%E -4.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 08:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -13.13%E -4.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 08:15
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -13.13%E -4.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -8.84%E -2.95%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 08:20
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.72%EV -13.13%E -4.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.81%EV -10.15%E -4.23%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -11.88%E -4.10%K -6.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-04 08:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.73%E -5.56%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -2.66%E -1.02%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -5.80%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 08:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-09-04 14:35
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-09-04 14:35
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-09-04 14:05