Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Amiens v Pau FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Amiens (Local)

Prediction 39.83%2.51fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.92%39.84%39.81%41.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.312.302.4046.51%43.33%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pau FC (Visit)

Prediction 34.16%2.93fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.682%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.80%34.17%34.14%35.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.702.8740.00%37.28%37.04%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.01%3.84fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.444%
Kelly -0.604%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.83%25.99%26.05%28.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.493.503.7833.33%28.63%28.57%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Amiens (Local): 39.83%; Pau FC (Visit): 34.16%; Draw: 26.01%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.78, with an expected value of -1.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 17:39
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -12.89%E -5.05%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 12:13
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.75%EV -4.81%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -1.96%E -0.682%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-10 17:50
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.43%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.12%EV -3.67%E -1.30%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.45%EV -1.68%E -0.444%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-10 17:45
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.94%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.58%EV -8.45%E -3.15%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 17:45
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.94%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.58%EV -8.45%E -3.15%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 17:45
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -6.40%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.76%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-10 17:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -6.40%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-10 17:50
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -6.40%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-10 17:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -6.40%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 17:50
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -6.40%E -2.73%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -9.47%E -3.57%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:50
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.40%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.00%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.14%EV -7.20%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.42%EV -9.47%E -3.57%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-10 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.36%EV -8.00%E -3.46%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.03%EV -6.40%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.61%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 17:50
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 17:50
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 17:55
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-10 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -9.47%E -3.57%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 17:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 17:44
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 17:31
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 17:50
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 17:50
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.49%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-10 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.49%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-10 17:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -9.47%E -3.57%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-10 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -9.47%E -3.57%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -9.47%E -3.57%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -9.47%E -3.57%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-10 17:35
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-10 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-10 17:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-10 17:45
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-10 17:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.43%EV -9.99%E -4.42%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-10 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.43%EV -9.99%E -4.42%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-10 17:55
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -10.39%E -4.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -6.06%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -5.06%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 17:55
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -10.39%E -4.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 17:55
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -10.39%E -4.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-10 17:50
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -10.39%E -4.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.33%EV -10.50%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-10 17:54
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -10.39%E -4.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -10.16%E -3.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-10 17:55
Suprabets🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.81%EV -11.18%E -5.02%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -7.76%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 25.49%EV -7.14%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 17:53
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.01%EV -11.18%E -5.02%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.72%EV -12.21%E -4.75%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.27%EV -8.18%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-10 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.77%EV -12.38%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.80%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.43%EV -21.97%E -7.32%K -10.98%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-10 17:55
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.42%EV -14.37%E -6.68%K -12.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -14.60%E -5.84%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-10 17:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.43%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.06%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%0.5%2026-04-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.34%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%0.8%2026-04-10 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.53%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.11%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36%1.1%2026-04-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.53%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.11%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36%1.1%2026-04-10 17:55
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.37%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.92%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.71%2.4%2026-04-10 17:55