Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Strasbourg v RC Lens

2026-08-29 15:15 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Resultado del partido

35 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Strasbourg (Local)

Predicción 28.97%3.45momio equitativo
EV +3.73%
Ventaja +1.04%
Kelly +1.44%
Crecimiento +0.054%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.76%28.89%28.99%31.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.203.123.5834.48%31.24%32.05%27.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

RC Lens (Visitante)

Predicción 43.62%2.29momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.626%
Kelly -1.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.99%43.58%43.71%45.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.152.152.2650.00%46.47%46.51%44.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.40%3.65momio equitativo
EV -1.34%
Ventaja -0.374%
Kelly -0.517%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.08%27.53%27.31%29.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.413.453.6032.26%29.29%28.99%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Strasbourg (Local): 28.97%; RC Lens (Visitante): 43.62%; Empate: 27.40%. Para Strasbourg (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.45. 6 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.58, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.73%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 27.53%EV +3.73%E +1.04%K +1.44%G +0.054%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.81%EV -1.85%E -0.823%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.66%EV -5.73%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-23 18:30
BetOnline.ag🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 27.05%EV +3.44%E +0.963%K +1.34%G +0.046%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.50%EV -3.16%E -1.42%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.44%EV -10.11%E -3.08%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 17:19
LowVig.ag🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 27.05%EV +3.44%E +0.963%K +1.34%G +0.046%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.50%EV -3.16%E -1.42%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.44%EV -10.11%E -3.08%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 17:19
Pinnacle🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 27.04%EV +3.15%E +0.884%K +1.23%G +0.039%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.96%EV -4.47%E -2.04%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.00%EV -9.02%E -2.72%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 19:35
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 27.52%EV +1.99%E +0.565%K +0.789%G +0.016%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.83%EV -3.60%E -1.63%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.66%EV -7.37%E -2.18%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 18:29
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV +1.41%E +0.403%K +0.564%G +0.008%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -10.58%E -5.16%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 17:19
Everygame🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -1.49%E -0.438%K -0.620%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.39%E -4.00%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -15.05%E -4.85%K -7.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:38
Suprabets🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 27.14%EV -2.07%E -0.612%K -0.869%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.47%EV -7.96%E -3.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.40%EV -14.50%E -4.65%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 16:52
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -4.39%E -1.33%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.39%E -4.00%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 19:25
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.83%E -1.80%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 18:24
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.83%E -1.80%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.46%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 18:24
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.20%EV -7.28%E -2.28%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.95%EV -1.85%E -0.823%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.85%EV -1.34%E -0.374%K -0.517%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 18:19
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.28%E -2.28%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:34
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.28%E -2.28%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:35
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.28%E -2.28%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -7.28%E -2.28%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -10.58%E -5.16%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 19:29
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -8.73%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -3.16%E -1.42%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -2.72%E -0.765%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 19:24
GTbets🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.42%EV -9.60%E -3.08%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.99%EV -1.42%E -0.626%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.59%EV -5.73%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 16:35
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.03%E -1.83%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -1.34%E -0.374%K -0.517%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-23 17:09
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.03%E -1.83%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -1.34%E -0.374%K -0.517%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-23 19:24
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.03%E -1.83%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:35
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 19:24
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.39%E -4.00%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 16:44
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.52%E -3.55%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 19:24
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.39%E -4.00%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.83%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:35
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.58%E -5.16%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.94%E -3.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.76%E -6.38%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -15.05%E -4.85%K -7.17%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-23 19:29
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -11.63%E -3.81%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -11.63%E -3.81%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.23%EV -7.52%E -3.55%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.72%EV -6.00%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 17:19
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -13.08%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.03%E -1.83%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 17:04
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -15.97%E -5.51%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -15.97%E -5.51%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 17:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -15.97%E -5.51%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.21%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -4.09%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 17:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-08-23 19:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%7.7%2026-08-23 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%7.7%2026-08-23 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.43%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%7.7%2026-08-23 19:29
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%9.2%2026-08-23 19:44
Arbitraje (3 combinaciones) +0.04%1xBet 3.58 (27.9%) / GTbets 2.26 (44.3%) / betfred_uk 3.60 (27.8%)Ver las 3 combinaciones
Strasbourg (Local)RC Lens (Visitante)EmpateMargen
1xBet🎯 3.58 (27.9%)GTbets🎯 2.26 (44.3%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (27.8%)+0.041%
1xBet🎯 3.58 (27.9%)GTbets🎯 2.26 (44.3%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (27.8%)+0.041%
1xBet🎯 3.58 (27.9%)GTbets🎯 2.26 (44.3%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.60 (27.8%)+0.041%